archiveoutlook

The longer-term view So far, we've been talking about the bull market that started in October 2022—which I’d also call a "cyclical" bull market. But I also look at what I'd call longer-term "secular trends," or super cycles. I believe that since the 2008–2009 financial crisis, US stocks have been in a super cycle of above-average returns. Those above-average returns have been driven by several factors, including falling interest rates over much of that period, rising margins, and buybacks and M&A (merger and acquisition) activity that has reduced the supply...