archiveUnited States Economy

The stock market is now higher than before President Trump’s broad and steep tariffs sent share prices into a tailspin. The 10-year government bond yield is now largely in line with where it started the year. On Tuesday, a widely watched measure of inflation nudged lower.Judging from a snapshot of today’s financial markets, it would be easy to conclude that very little had happened over the last four and a half months.As the administration has dialed down its trade offensive, delaying the worst of the tariffs announced on April 2...

The U.S. dollar has been a symbol of American power for decades. Of the $7.5 trillion in global currency transactions that take place each day, some 90 percent feature the dollar. The majority of central banks see it as the core of their reserves. Consumers run to it in times of stress. Businesses prefer it for trade invoicing, whether they are based in Milwaukee or Malaysia.The dollar may not lose its globally dominant role anytime soon. After all, there isn’t an obvious alternative waiting in the wings. But it is...

The U.S. dollar has fallen about 9 percent in the past three months, according to an index that tracks its performance against a basket of major trading partners. Not since the 1970s has the currency performed so badly in a president’s first 100 days.The drop isn’t surprising. The U.S. economic outlook is far cloudier than it was on Inauguration Day, as President Trump’s tariffs set the stage for slower growth and higher inflation. U.S. assets look far less attractive now.But could there be something more existential afoot? Questions are swirling...

The bedrock of the financial system trembled on Friday, with government bond yields rising sharply as the chaotic rollout of tariffs shook investors’ faith in the pivotal role played by the United States in the financial system.U.S. government bonds, known as Treasuries because they are issued by the U.S. Treasury, are backed by the full faith of the American government, and the market for Treasuries has long been deemed one of the safest and most stable in the world.But the Treasury market’s erratic behavior all week has raised fears that...

This time, maybe the stock market is the economy.Financial markets around the world have plummeted in the days since President Trump announced sweeping tariffs, setting off a global trade war. The S&P 500 declined more than 10 percent in two days last week, and it swung wildly on Monday amid news of further tariffs and rumors of delays. Stock indexes in Asia and Europe have fallen sharply as well.Experts often caution that the stock market can be a misleading measure of the broader economy. Share prices can move for a...

“Inflation is a low drip, like boiling a frog: The impact kind of creeps up on you, but when it hits, it doesn’t feel good,” Mr. Haynes said.Don’t fool yourself into thinking you can bail out of stocks now, then jump back in when the market stabilizes. Gains historically have come in unpredictable spurts, and the biggest advances often come within days of the worst declines. If you missed the 10 best days over the 20 years from 2005 to 2024, you would have reduced your returns by more than...

The stock market has fallen fast over the past month. Business and consumer sentiment is souring, and investors are afraid that economic data will soon start to show deeper cracks.The question on Wednesday: Will the Federal Reserve also express concern about the path ahead?So far, Fed officials have largely avoided commenting on an uncertain outlook while current economic data remain solid. A healthy labor market has allowed the central bank to continue to point to economic resilience as it holds interest rates high in response to stubborn inflation.But in addition...

Investors watching the S&P 500’s plunge this week are processing a mix of signals. Will the threat of tariffs push the economy into a recession or is this simply a retrenchment from the highly valued technology companies that some analysts and investors argued were due for a pullback?There is a different stock index that is flashing a clearer warning sign.The Russell 2000 includes smaller companies that are more sensitive to the whims of the economy. These companies tend to run thinner profit margins that can be more easily eroded in...