Following DevComms’ recent looks at the new constituencies of Reading West & Mid Berkshire and Bicester & Woodstock, senior account executive for the South East Matthew Vallender explains another newly created seat up for grabs at the General Election, Buckingham and Bletchley.
On May 22, 2024, the Prime Minister announced a UK Parliamentary General Election to be held on Thursday, July 4 and requested the King dissolve Parliament.
In this series of articles, we will explore key battlegrounds across Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Hampshire, and Oxfordshire.
We’ll delve into constituency profiles, analyse previous election results, introduce the major party candidates, review polling data, and make predictions for the upcoming General Election.
The third constituency in focus is Buckingham and Bletchley, another new seat for this General Election.
Constituency Profile
The Buckingham and Bletchley constituency is a blend of parts from two former constituencies: Buckingham and Milton Keynes South.
It encompasses the town of Buckingham and its surrounding rural areas, as well as the southern suburbs of the city of Milton Keynes, including Bletchley and Tattenhoe.
Previous General Election Results
Given that this is a newly established constituency, historical comparisons can only be made using notional results from the 2019 General Election:
- Conservative: 27,912 votes (53.1 per cent)
- Labour: 14,567 votes (27.7 per cent)
- Liberal Democrat: 8,118 votes (15.4 per cent)
- Independent: 681 votes (1.3 per cent)
- Green: 629 votes (1.2 per cent)
- The Brexit Party: 508 votes (1.0 per cent)
- English Democrats: 194 votes (0.4 per cent)
These figures indicate that, had the constituency existed in 2019, the Conservative candidate would have won with a majority of 13,345 votes, representing a 25.4 per cent lead.
Candidates
The race for this seat sees experienced and diverse candidates:
- Conservative: Iain Stewart, the sitting MP for Milton Keynes South since 2010. He has a background in policy research and executive recruitment, and currently chairs the Transport Select Committee in Parliament.
- Labour: Callum Anderson, elected to represent South Acton ward on Ealing Council in 2022. Originally from Luton, Callum brings local knowledge from nearby Dunstable.
- Liberal Democrat: Dominic Dyer, a long-term resident of Milton Keynes with a career spanning agriculture, food manufacturing, plant science, and conservation. He has held leadership roles across Whitehall, Westminster, and the European Commission.
The Greens and Reform UK have also announced their candidates – which can be found on their respective websites.
Polling
Polling data suggests a significant shift in voter sentiment. According to Electoral Calculus, the latest forecast gives Labour an 77 per cent chance of winning the seat, with the Conservatives at 23 per cent. I provide a breakdown of the predicted results:
- Labour: 44.0 per cent
- Conservative: 32.9 per cent
- Reform UK: 11.9 per cent
- Liberal Democrat: 7.5 per cent
YouGov’s MRP (which has a good track record previously – the most accurate of all pre-poll predictions of the result in 2019, and the only one to predict 2017’s hung Parliament) agrees – the latest results putting the seat on 35.7 per cent Labour, 27.4 per cent Conservative, 20.2 per cent Reform UK and 11.6 per cent Lib Dem. Given the notional 2019 results, this shift would mark a notable gain for Labour from the Conservatives.
Predictions
Analysts suggest that Buckingham and Bletchley could be a decisive seat in Labour’s quest for a majority. If Labour secures this seat, it would represent the 125th seat required for a majority, assuming a uniform national swing and excluding Labour-SNP contests in Scotland.
With Labour holding a clear lead and the traditional margin of error at +/- three per cent, the constituency appears poised for a Labour victory. However, any tightening of the polls could bolster the Conservative chances, making this a critical seat to watch on election night.
Stay tuned as we continue to provide the latest insights and updates on key constituencies in the lead-up to the crucial General Election on July 4, 2024.
DevComms’ South East team, based in the heart of Reading and Thames Valley region, is working with many of these key political stakeholders and is well placed to help our clients as they seek to navigate these political changes.
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