The latest country stats from Land Registry show that over time, the property inflation stats show that Wales and Northern Ireland have grown less than the long-term inflation since 2005, while Scotland and England are just in line. So in spite of the huge rises and falls since 2005, in the main, property prices by country are either rising over time with general inflation – or just below.
Their stats on a year on year basis show that Scotland and Northern Ireland, up to November time, were up year on year while England and Wales were slightly down, but nothing like the huge forecasted falls.
England and Wales were slightly down, but nothing like the huge forecasted falls.”
Nationwide’s quarterly mortgaged only sales actually show that Scotland is just up year on year, while Northern Ireland is 4.5% up versus Q4 in 22 – which considering the rises in mortgage rates throughout 2023, is quite an incredible result. Meanwhile, they agree with the Land Registry that prices in England and Wales are slightly down year on year.
On a regional basis, we have data from the Land Registry, Home.co.uk and Halifax monthly while Nationwide monitor this on a quarterly basis.
What’s good about the data is that, bar London and the South, even though the average national prices vary a lot from one indices to another, regional data varies a lot less.
For example, nationally, Rightmove typically has the highest monthly average price: £359,748 while the lowest is Nationwide at £257,656, which is a staggering 39%+ difference!
And if you look at London prices in particular, they also range dramatically between the indices with Rightmove showing the highest average of £664,550 versus the lowest – which is the Land Registry at £505,283, a 31% difference. There is also a big difference in the ‘performance’ of London according to the different indices, with the Halifax and Rightmove showing falls of less than half a per cent, while the Land Registry shows the highest fall of 6%, a significant difference.
Regions showing a positive market are North East and West and Yorkshire and Humber.”
The South East, East and South West showing the highest falls, are likely to be worst affected due to reliance and need for larger mortgages. Regions that are showing a positive market according to Halifax and Home.co.uk are: North East and West and Yorkshire and Humber, whilst Rightmove also records positive price movement for the North West and Yorkshire/Humber region.
However, it’s important to note two things. Firstly, the falls are pretty minute, mostly just a few percent. And secondly, that compared to 2019, which is the best ‘base year’ we have for the market pre the pandemic, that most home owners have seen good price growth during the time they own a property.
What’s more useful though is this chart from Home.co.uk which shows a good picture for any sellers looking to move having bought five years – or more – ago. Even with the rise in mortgage costs over the last 18 months, most regional buyers will have seen good price growth, hopefully enough to remortgage at a reasonable rate with a better Loan to Value and/or in a position where they have gained enough equity to trade up – or indeed release some equity and trade down.
For Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland we monitor:
- Principality Building Society
- Halifax
- Zoopla
- Esurv
Summary from the indices of the Scottish housing market
“Scotland and Wales both saw positive growth, +4% on an annual basis to £206,087 and £219,609 respectively.”
No change in Scotland’s house price over last twelve months
“The average house price in Scotland in November 2023 has fallen by a minimal £16, or 0.0%, over the last twelve months, which is 0.5% lower than the rate seen in October, one month earlier. This is the lowest annual growth rate since May 2016, some seven and a half years earlier.
“14 of the 32 local authorities in Scotland were reporting a positive movement in prices over the previous twelve months, compared with 17 in October. However, as with the previous month, Edinburgh had the largest fall in prices over the year when measured on a weight-adjusted basis, which on its own counterbalanced some 27% of the positive movement in values in the 14 areas with price gains.
“In November, on the mainland, East Renfrewshire had the highest increase in its annual rate of price growth, at 12.0%. In East Renfrewshire, all property types have seen an increase in values over the last twelve months, but particularly semi-detached homes, with average prices rising from £300k in November 2022 to £350k twelve months later. Staying on the mainland, Midlothian has the second-highest annual growth rate at 10.7%. Again, similar to East Renfrewshire, all property types have seen an increase in their average prices, but in Midlothian it is terraced properties that have had the most significant increase, up from an average £205k in November 2022 to £235k one year later.
The largest percentage fall in prices over the last twelve months was Dumfries and Galloway.”
“At the other end of the scale, the area on the mainland with the largest percentage fall in prices over the last twelve months was Dumfries and Galloway, at -5.4%. In Dumfries and Galloway, all property types saw prices fall over the year, with the largest fall on a weight-adjusted basis being terraced homes, down from an average £140k in November 2022 to £125k one year later.”
Summary from the indices of the Welsh housing market
Average house price in Wales falls for fourth consecutive quarter
“There have now been four consecutive quarters of price falls since average prices peaked in Wales at just over £249,000 at the end of 2022. The price of homes fell by more than £5,000 in the fourth quarter of 2023 to a little over £234,000. This is 6% or £15,000 below their recent peak, but still 25% stronger than five years ago.
“Nevertheless, it is the weakest period for the Welsh housing market since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009. The 6% year-on-year decline is relatively modest in nominal terms, given some rather more gloomy forecasts, but of course it is a more significant adjustment in real terms after adjusting for inflationary pressures.
“The 2.2% decline in prices recorded in the quarter is the largest drop in the period December 2020 to December 2023, but with the jobs market appearing resilient and expectations of Bank of England interest rate cuts during 2024, we are now perhaps moving towards a more positive outlook. Certainly, there are already significant cuts in mortgage rates.”
Summary from the indices of the Northern Ireland housing market
“Northern Ireland recorded the strongest growth across all the nations or regions within the UK – house prices here increased by +5.3% on an annual basis. Properties in Northern Ireland now cost on average £195,760, which is £9,761 higher than the same time in January 2023.”
“Northern Ireland is an outlier with house prices up 3.2% over 2023.”
Commentary on the regional performance by indices
“The ‘new normal’ post-COVID continues to favour the northern English regions, Wales and Scotland in terms of
price growth. This month’s data shows that the former growth leader, the North East, has been pipped to the top spot by the North West. It is remarkable that these regions, despite all the challenges since late 2022, have managed to retain a state of overall growth. This is clear testament to the considerable demand driven vigour in these markets.
“Meanwhile, it is the East Midlands, South West, East and London that have borne the brunt of the price corrections.
The East of England is the current laggard with a fall of 2.0% since January 2023. Should these regions recover their losses and return to growth, the national average figures would almost certainly return to real growth.”
“North West (+3.2%), Yorkshire and Humber (+2.8%), North East (+2.0%) and East Midlands (0.5%) also recorded house price increases over the last year.
“The South East fell the most last month when compared to other UK regions, with homes selling for an average £379,220 (-2.3%), a drop of £8,866.
“London retains the top spot for the highest average house price across all the regions, at £529,528, albeit prices
in the capital have declined by -0.4% on an annual basis.”
“The largest upward change in rates took place in the North East, up by +0.4% on the previous month, making it the only region to have a positive annual rate of growth, at +0.2%. The largest downward movement in rates occurred in the South East, where prices fell by an additional -0.8%, resulting in a decline of -5.7% on an annual basis.
“The three regions with an overall positive change in growth rates were the North East, Greater London and the South West. The seven areas where prices deteriorated further were, in ranked order (smallest to largest), the East Midlands, Wales, Yorkshire and the Humber, the North West, the West Midlands, the East of England and the South East.”
“On a regional basis, we register the largest price falls in the East of England (-2.5%) and the South West (-2.2%).”
