New data from HM Revenue & Customs has revealed the number of UK residential property transactions in January 2024 was 10% lower than the same month in 2023.
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in January 2024 is 68,090, 10% lower than January 2023 and 20% lower than December 2023.
Looking at the same data on a seasonally adjusted basis, HMRC said that transactions in January 2024 is 82,000, 12% lower than January 2023 and 2% higher than December 2023.
Commenting on the data, Nathan Emerson CEO Propertymark said:
“As people’s finances start to recover, it is always inevitable that housing transaction figures will not surge at the start of a new year – in fact a drop is to be expected as the strongest time to sell a home is normally spring.
With the banks offering more competitive mortgage products and interest rates not rising, affordability will continue to improve as 2024 continues. This should then result in more people starting to put their houses onto the market which tends to lead to a surge in transactions down the line.”
Andy Sommerville, Director at Search Acumen, said that the numbers reflect “subdued momentum across the board”. He continued:
“Whilst commercial property transactions have remained steady, albeit at a snail’s pace with just a 1% decrease month-on-month, it is the residential market that has yet to escape the quicksand, sinking deeper into slow-moving deals. Weak supply and poor financial mobility, exasperated by seasonal lulls, has meant the market is lacking punch and the property plateau persists. Seasonally adjusted residential transactions sit at 82,000 – 10% lower than a year previous, and the lowest recorded volume in January for over a decade.
For non-residential transactions, although there has been a slight downward shift, compared to January last year we are seeing some stability with a 1% increase. Borrowing costs continue to influence higher value commercial deals, and it is likely that until we see interest rates dial back again, the market will be hard pushed to see significant gains. Some sectors are faring better than others, including tech and Life Sciences, providing a much-needed life raft to the overall picture painted. Government ambitions to make the country a digital superpower has turbocharged this sub-sector while others fall short.
Looking ahead, uncertainty still looms, especially with anticipation surrounding potential announcements in the Spring Budget. These announcements are due to add another layer of complexity, with policies potentially impacting both sectors. For example, it has been predicted that the so-called ‘tourist tax’ will not be reversed by the Chancellor, in another hit for the already struggling retail sector, blocking London’s ability to compete with international cities such as Paris or Milan.”
Mark Tosetti, Group Partnerships Director at Movera, a group of home moving businesses including ONP Solicitors, said:
“These figures are, on the face of it, somewhat disheartening, although a decline is not unexpected for January. However, as transactions are at the end of the homebuying process, they do not necessarily reflect the rest of the market. The latest data from property website Zoopla has shown that buyers and sellers continued to return to the market in February. Looking ahead to next week’s Budget, the last before the next General Election, it will be interesting to see whether the Chancellor gives the market a helping hand such as the hinted-at 99% mortgage, and a boost to housebuilding. Our focus will continue to be on helping those looking to move or remortgage this year.”
This article was originally published on 29th February. The date has been changed for newsletter inclusion.
