Which tenures and regions have seen property value ri…

Total value of UK housing fell marginally in 2023 by 0.3 per cent or £27 billion, but remains significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average.

That’s according to Savills which says housing wealth overall tops £7 trillion – a figure 2.6 times the size of the UK’s economy. This was supported by a total £80 billion uplift from new housing delivery last year.

Outright owner occupiers continue to be the major beneficiaries of longer term value growth and now hold 40 per cent of all housing value, while the value of private rented stock has increased by £682 billion over the past 10 years.

“Despite higher mortgage costs, the market’s resilience means UK housing continues to be a significant, and a relatively secure, store of wealth. Even after deducting outstanding mortgage debt of £1.652 trillion, our figures show that net housing wealth continued to exceed £7 trillion; a figure 2.6 times the size of the UK’s economy” comments Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills.

“Fundamentally, the market was insulated from interest rate pressures by a combination of more stringent mortgage regulation, the increased use of fixed rate mortgages and the assistance provided by lenders to those in financial difficulty. We may see the cost of mortgages ebb and flow over the course of 2024, as markets respond to changing expectations of when and how much the Bank of England will cut the base rate. But over the medium term we expect affordability pressure to ease, meaning that the recent loss in value should be short lived.”

According to Savills, the value falls were concentrated in the south. The total value of London’s housing stock decreased by £39.3 billion or 2.1 per cent, while the South East, South West and East of England saw a combined £16.5 billion or 0.5 per cent fall.

By contrast, markets further from London which have a greater capacity for growth, saw values increase on the year. The most significant uplift was in Northern Ireland (3.2 per cent), North East (1.4 per cent), and Scotland and the East Midlands (each 1.3 per cent).

While London accounts for the largest proportion of the total value of UK housing, since 2016 it has only accounted for 12.01 per cent of total growth. As a result, its proportion of the total value of UK housing has fallen from a high of 24 per cent in 2016 to a more normal 21 per cent last year, 2023.

“A geographical rebalancing of the UK housing market continued in 2023,” continues Cook. “As expected at this stage in the cycle, the most robust regional markets were those where mortgaged buyers had to borrow less in relation to their income.”

The analysis shows that the value of property held by mortgage-free owner occupiers has increased by £1.505 trillion – that a rise of over £1,500 billion – over the past decade, while that held by mortgaged owner occupiers has risen by a lesser £978 billion.

“Back in 2013 the value of housing held by unmortgaged and mortgaged owner occupiers was very similar. However, demographic changes and a shift in access to home ownership have substantially widened the gap between the two in the last 10 years,” says Cook.

“We continued to see people who benefitted from the homeownership boom of the latter part of the 20th century joining the ranks of the mortgage-free in 2023. 

Meanwhile increased taxation and regulation have constrained supply in the private rented sector housing, despite rising tenant demand” concludes Cook.

Total of UK Housing Stock by Tenure (£ billions)