Cowboys’ $6.6 million, draft pick investments land them 2 flop warnings from ESPN
Every move looks good in the offseason. Upside is kind when evaluating a team’s trades, free agent signings and draft picks during the spring and summer. But despite the front office’s rosy wording around each of their acquisitions, the reality is there’s risk in every move and they land on the negative side of the ledger as often as they do on the positive.
For the Dallas Cowboys, they might have more boom-or-bust nature to their offseason than most clubs. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell pulled a review of this offseason’s moves from around the entire NFL, and of the 15 players ID’d as signings which could end up as breakouts or flops include two new Cowboys.
WR George Pickens, whose fourth-year of his rookie deal will pay him $3.6 million in 2025, came over via a trade with the Pittsburgh Steelers. RB Javonte Williams was signed as a free agent from the Denver Broncos for a cool one-year, $3 million deal. They will attempt to give two key roles in the Cowboys’ offense a jump start.
Barnwell identified the additional opportunities Pickens will see just based on how the Cowboys offense is structured.
Pickens is moving from one of the league’s least pass-happy offenses to one of its most. The Cowboys threw at the third-highest rate in neutral game scripts on early downs before Dak Prescott went down with a season-ending hamstring injury in Week 9. The Steelers ranked 25th by the same metric over that span. Dallas also plays at a faster pace than Pittsburgh, something likely to continue with Brian Schottenheimer taking over as coach.
He also sees Prescott’s strengths as something in line with better quality targets for Pickens.
Pickens is also going to get a massive upgrade at quarterback. For whatever flak Prescott gets for his weaknesses, he throws one of the most consistently accurate balls of any quarterback. His ball placement on slants, digs and back-shoulder throws, in particular, has been excellent over the past few years. Pickens is going to see plenty of those routes.
The bust side comes in that Pickens’ target share is likely to come down, and despite his size he hasn’t yet capitalized on his red-zone opportunities; something that is often lauded as a key reason for the trade.
Pickens has the frame and catch radius to be an impactful player in close quarters, but that has never really shown up inside the 20-yard line. He had just five touchdowns on 48 targets inside the red zone in his first three NFL seasons. I’d like to see Schottenheimer create one-on-one opportunities for his new wideout to leverage that 6-foot-3 frame.
For all the positives of Pickens moving to Dallas, the downside has to be a reduction in target share. He drew targets on more than 25% of the routes he ran a year ago, which ranked 25th among all wideouts. Brandin Cooks, whose role in the lineup is nominally going to Pickens, drew targets on just under 19% of his routes in 2024. That might not sound like a big difference, but over a full season, that gap could amount to 40 extra targets.
As for Williams, Barnwell doesn’t see much outright upside to the decision as he tries to rationalize the move away from Rico Dowdle for basically the same amount of money, and potentially a 2026 draft pick.
The Cowboys are obviously hoping for the better outcomes with both players. Though Williams is likely to be part of a committee approach, Pickens’ addition may be the key to the Cowboys’ season. CeeDee Lamb is going to shine, and a strong season by Pickens unlocks Jake Ferguson, Kavontae Turpin and Jalen Tolbert’s opportunities.
