“Consumer confidence pulled back, recession concerns gained momentum and initial GDP growth estimates were negative. Still, inflation continues to decline, with the latest reading marking the lowest level in more than four years,” Amsterdam says.
He emphasizes that as market volatility and uncertainty ease, it reinforces the view that US real estate investment “is a long-term play, not one driven by short-term news cycles.”
A Tariff Rollercoaster, Loan Maturations Push Again
The full effect of tariffs on the U.S. real estate market is still unknown even as some are rolled back or reduced, which Aaron Jodka, Colliers’ director of research, US Capital Markets says helps mitigate potential inflationary effects. Tariff-related cost adjustments will likely be spread among producers, suppliers and end consumers, making the final outcome challenging to predict.
“Ultimately, the uncertainty introduced by tariff policy has proven more impactful than any direct effect on asset classes,” Jodka notes.
Additionally, Colliers’ report found that loan maturities remain a familiar refrain, with the total amount of loans extended into 2025 exceeding that of the previous year.
“The game of ‘kick the can’ continues, with most lender categories, led by banks and CMBS, pushing loans into the future,” Jodka says, adding that extensions now represent a notable share of all 2025 maturities across asset classes.
“Against this backdrop, substantial distress-focused fundraising is anxiously awaiting resolution on loan maturities and an opportunity to rebalance the capital stack,” he notes.
Investment Opportunities Emerge, Multifamily Remains Resilient
Despite market volatility, new investment opportunities are emerging, including redevelopment plays, which are seen as viable strategies as market pricing adjusts from coast to coast.
Jodka believes that investors are spending more time on alternative or specialized asset classes, including healthcare properties, data centers and senior housing, which saw cap rates of 6.8%, 6.6% and 6.1%, respectively, in the first quarter.
“Many assets are trading below replacement costs, making them compelling acquisition targets,” Jodka says. He also sees construction “drying up” across asset classes, a trend that is setting the stage for a recovery in fundamentals.
“Meanwhile, industrial investors are shifting their focus to longer weighted average lease term deals for greater predictability over cash flow,” he adds.
Multifamily properties appear to be the most resilient asset class in a slower-growth environment. Colliers found that multifamily remains on the upswing, with consistent monthly sales gains on a year-over-year basis. Despite a recent wave of multifamily deliveries, absorption has kept pace, and the United States remains underhoused, David Goodhue, Colliers’ head of multifamily explains.
“Housing is an essential need; while there may be movement between housing types or markets, people still need somewhere to live. Asset classes tied to discretionary spending are most likely to face headwinds,” Goodhue adds.
