In this article, we will look at the 18 fastest-declining cities in the US. If you want to skip our detailed analysis of the global housing market, then you can go directly to 5 Fastest-Declining Cities in the US.
An Analysis of Trends in the Housing Market
According to a report by the National Association of Realtors, home sales in the US declined by 1.0% and reached an annual rate of 3.78 million in 2023. This has been the lowest level of sales in the past 3 decades, with the usual annual rate being 4.09 million. The number of sales declined 6.2% between 2022-2023. On the bright side, the median existing-home sales price increased 4.4% between 2022-2023, reaching a rate of $382,600.
Savills reported that in 2022, the residential real estate market decreased in sales by 1.6%, whereas commercial real estate fell by 1.8%. The residential real estate market did incur benefits from low interest rates during the pandemic era, post-2019. During this period, the majority of people choose to invest in the redevelopment of their current residential assets rather than new properties. Investments into commercial real estate, as well as agricultural land, were on the back burner.
Multiple sources, such as RealAssets Adviser, have reported a continuing increase in population shifts to the ‘US Sunbelt’. The collective 18 southern states between North Carolina and California are known as the Sunbelt. Statistically about 75% of the US population has shifted to the Sun Belt states over the past decade. This is largely due to the lower rates of taxation, affordable housing, and most importantly, a growing commercial and business sector. Single-family homes that were otherwise unaffordable outside of the Sunbelt are increasingly being bought in these states, even multi-family homes. These states have less dense populations and have far less congested metropolitan areas compared to major cities like New York.
The growth of social media and digitization in general has been quite fruitful for the real estate market, among other sectors. Real estate manufacturers and agents have utilized various modes of virtual reality to increase sales, without having buyers physically visit numerous properties. 3D Tours, Drone photographs and videos, and virtual staging are some of the most common ways agents conduct virtual tours of properties. An example of this is Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z), an online real estate company. Zillow has a home-valuation tool that allows buyers to compare the value of the home based on sales history and the local market. Moreover, the company lets users buy properties online after taking virtual tours of the property. You might be interested in 20 Most Affordable Housing Markets in the US in 2023 and 30 Countries with Most Affordable Housing in the World
Let’s now look at some of the major companies in the real estate market which include LGI Homes, Inc. (NASDAQ:LGIH), Kimco Realty (NYSE:KIM), and Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL). You can also take a look at 20 Countries where Housing Prices are Declining or Flat.
Key Players in the Housing Market
LGI Homes, Inc. (NASDAQ:LGIH) is a Texas-based home construction and selling company. The company has manufactured over 65,000 homes in the US, with a business model focused on family homes. On February 13, LGI Homes, Inc. (NASDAQ:LGIH) announced the expansion of Terrata Homes, a range of brand-new homes, in Brooksville, Florida. Terrata Homes would be part of the Southern Hills neighborhood, a prime community in Brooksville. These new homes would offer four different designs to home buyers and include a wide range of first-class amenities.
Kimco Realty (NYSE:KIM) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the US, with a considerable portfolio of commercial properties. The company focuses on re-developing sub-urban areas to increase commercial activity. On January 2, Kimco Realty (NYSE:KIM) announced its latest acquisition of RPT Realty. This acquisition will bring 56 open-air shopping centers to the company’s portfolio, taking the company’s total properties to 527. Furthermore, the RPT acquisition will increase growth and partnership opportunities for the company.
Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) is a luxury home builder and a Fortune 500 company. The company has properties in 24 states across the US. On December 5, 2023, Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) reported earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2023. The company reported earnings per share of $4.11 and outperformed EPS estimates by $0.39. The company’s revenue for the quarter grew by 18.64% and amounted to $3.02 billion.
With this context, let’s take a look at the 18 fastest-declining cities in the US.
Photo by Breno Assis on Unsplash
Methodology
In this article, we have listed 18 fastest-declining cities in the US. We consulted data from the US Census Bureau, which gave estimates of the annual population growth of over 800 US cities between 2020-2022. We calculated the percentage change in the population of each city between 2020-2022 and ranked the cities based on their population decline. We have listed the 18 fastest-declining cities in the US below in ascending order of their percentage fall in population between 2020 and 2022.
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18 Fastest-Declining Cities in the US
18. Monterey Park, California
Percentage Change in Population: -3.83%
First up on our list of the 18 fastest-declining cities in the US is Monterey Park, California. It is part of the San Gabriel Valley in Los Angeles County. The city hosts a dominantly Asian American population and is considered a good locality due to its proximity to the Downtown Los Angeles Civic Center. Between 2020-2022, there was a -3.83% of population change in Monterey Park.
17. South San Francisco, California
Percentage Change in Population: -3.99%
Second up on our list of the 18 fastest-declining cities in the US is South San Francisco, California. Situated in San Mateo County, it is also commonly known as the ‘South City’. The city has a wide range of activities to offer, from various culinary restaurants to other outdoor activities. Between 2020-2022, there was a -3.99% change in population in South San Francisco.
16. Sandy City, Utah
Percentage Change in Population: -4.02%
Sandy City, Utah, ranks sixteenth on our list of the 18 fastest-declining cities in the US. It is part of the Salt Lake City metropolitan area. Between 2020-2022, there was a -4.02% change in population in Sandy City.
15. Union City, New Jersey
Percentage Change in Population: -4.05%
Union City, New Jersey is part of Hudson County. There are several parks in the city such as Washington Park and the Union City Reservoir Park. Between 2020-2022, there was a -4.05% population change in Union City.
14. Lynwood, California
Percentage Change in Population: -4.08%
Lynwood, California, ranks fourteenth on our list of the 18 fastest-declining cities in the US. It is part of Los Angeles County and is near the South Gate and Compton area. The Lynwood Dairy and Creamery is the city’s most significant business. Between 2020-2022, there was a -4.08% of population change in Lynwood.
13. Taylorsville, Utah
Percentage Change in Population: -4.12%
Ranking thirteenth on our list of the 17 fastest-declining cities in the US, Taylorsville is situated in Salt Lake County in Utah. The city has a dense population and hosts a diverse community. It is part of the Utah Metropolitan Statistical Area and Salt Lake City. The percentage change in population in Taylorsville was -4.121% between 2020 and 2022.
12. San Mateo, California
Percentage Change in Population: -4.12%
San Mateo, California, ranks twelfth on our list of the 18 fastest-declining cities in the US. Situated in San Mateo County, it is part of the San Francisco Bay Area. The city is home to several technology companies such as Roblox and Sony Interactive Entertainment. San Mateo had a -4.123% change in population between 2020-2022.
11. Union City, California
Percentage Change in Population: -4.20%
Union City is situated in Alameda County, California. It is part of the Hayward and Fremont Tri-City area. The city has a strong industry of shipping companies as well as historical attractions such as the Bay Area Flight 93 Memorial. The percentage change in population in Union City was -4.20%.
10. Berkeley, California
Percentage Change in Population: -4.23%
Berkeley, California is ranked tenth on our list of the 18 fastest-growing cities in the US. It is situated on the eastern shore of the San Francisco Bay Area. The city is home to several high-ranking universities such as the University of California. The percentage change in population in Berkeley was -4.23% between 2020-2022.
9. Redwood City, California
Percentage Change in Population: -4.30%
Redwood City, California, is situated in the Northern California Bay Area. It is known for its lively downtown area that offers a range of entertainment activities such as movie theaters. Between 2020-2022, the percentage change in population in Redwood City was -4.30%.
8. San Leandro, California
Percentage Change in Population: -4.34%
Ranking eighth on our list of the 18 fastest-declining cities in the US is San Leandro, California. The city is situated in Alameda County and is close to Oakland and San Francisco. There was a -4.34% population change in San Leandro between 2020-2022.
7. Daly City, California
Percentage Change in Population: -4.42%
Daly City is part of San Mateo County in the state of California. Due to its proximity to San Francisco, it is known as an extension of the state. Between 2020-2022, there was a -4.42% change in population in Daly City.
6. Jackson, Mississippi
Percentage Change in Population: -4.57%
Jackson is the capital of the state of Mississippi and ranks sixth on our list of the fastest-declining cities in the US. It is the largest and most densely populated area in the metropolitan area and generates good revenue from tourism. Jackson had a -4.57% change in population between 2020-2022.
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