Crime Trends in U.S. Cities: Mid-Year 2023 Update

Homicide is the unlawful killing of one person by another. Figure 1 displays the average monthly homicide rate in the 30 cities for which homicide incident data were available (see Appendix). The analysis identified an upward-trending cyclical pattern in the homicide rate over time. The rate peaked in July 2020, far exceeding previous peaks during the study period, amid widespread protests against police violence after George Floyd’s murder in May of that year. By 2021, the homicide rate was 40.7% higher than in 2019. At year-end 2022, homicides were 5% lower than in 2021 and 33.7% higher than in 2019. The number of homicides during the first half of 2023 was 9.4% lower, on average, than during the same period in 2022—representing 202 fewer homicides in the cities that reported data (see Figure 2). Relative to 2022, May and June saw the largest decreases during the first half of 2023, with drops of 17% and 16%, respectively. Despite such declines, homicide levels remained 24% higher in the first half of 2023 than in the first half of 2019, the year before the pandemic, the police killing of George Floyd, and the ensuing protests.

Not all cities followed the sample-wide trend in homicide. To illuminate the variation across the 30 cities included in this study, Figure 3 shows the percentage change in the number of homicides in each city for the period between January and June in 2022 and 2023. Ten of the cities recorded a rise in homicide, ranging from increases of 133% in Lincoln, NE, to less than 4.5% in New York. Twenty cities experienced reductions in homicides, ranging from 59% in Raleigh, NC, to 2% in Nashville, TN. (As noted above, crime incident data for individual cities are subject to revision. For the most up-to-date information on a specific city, please visit its website.)

KEY TAKEAWAY

The number of homicides was 9.4% lower—202 fewer homicides—during the first half of 2023 than in the first half of 2022. However, the homicide rate remained 24% higher than during the first half 2019, the year prior to the pandemic and protests.