The constant threat of violent death is something of an occupational hazard for American commanders-in-chief, and four sitting presidents have succumbed to it.
Nonetheless, there is no denying that this incident will have a significant impact on this year’s presidential race.
Trump has built his campaign on the idea that everyone is out to get him. Federal prosecutors, judges, election officials, rival politicians and journalists have all been accused of trying to bring down his campaign and prevent his return to the White House.
Many of those claims have rightly been contested. But after the incident in Pennsylvania, even Trump’s worst enemies cannot deny that there are some who would rather see him dead than re-elected.
Like Reagan, Trump can expect a poll boost
The polls already suggest that Trump is likely to win back the presidency in November, after a torrid few months for his opponent and a criminal conviction that has had little impact on his popularity.
If history tells us anything, the events of Saturday will only increase his support. In the months after Mr Reagan was shot, the newly-elected Republican president saw a poll boost of eight points.
On Monday, Trump will greet supporters in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, to announce his running mate at the Republican Party’s national convention.
The security arrangements, which are already stringent, will likely be strengthened further in response to the major safety breach that came close to ending the nominee’s life.
But the rhetoric, too, will be different. Trump’s supporters are already claiming the assassination attempt as the latest battle in his war to rescue the US, and that framing will now dominate the campaign.
