Through November 2023 With Forecasts Through November 2024
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.2% in November 2023 compared with November 2022. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.2% in November 2023 compared with October 2023 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will decrease on a month-over-month basis (-0.2%) from November 2023 to December 2023 and increase on a year-over-year basis by 2.5% from November 2023 to November 2024.
Chart 1: Current month-over-month and year-over year U.S. home price growth and projections through November 2024
Northeastern States Continue to Lead the U.S. for Annual Home Price Growth
Annual single-family home price growth moved up again in November, posting a 5.2% gain. Northeastern states continued to show significant appreciation, with Rhode Island (11.6%), Connecticut (10.6%) and New Jersey (10.5%) all seeing double-digit growth. In addition, 24 other states posted higher year-over-year home price gains than the national rate.
Areas in the Northeast, South and Midwest — where relative affordability continues to drive demand — posted the strongest home price increases. Many of the nation’s current fastest-appreciating real estate markets lagged in price growth during the pandemic but have recently benefited from job gains, with The Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPs Act helping to spur housing demand.
“Home price appreciation continued to push forward in November, despite the new highs in mortgage rates seen over the year. And while the annual growth reflects comparison with last year’s declines, seasonal gains remain in line with historical averages. However, in some metro areas, such as those in the Mountain West and the Northwest, higher interest rates are having a greater impact on homebuyers’ budgets, which is contributing to a larger seasonal slump. This continued strength remains remarkable amid the nation’s affordability crunch but speaks to the pent-up demand that is driving home prices higher. Markets where the prolonged inventory shortage has been exacerbated by the lack of new homes for sale recorded notable price gains over the course of 2023.”
Dr. Selma Hepp
– Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – November 2023
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased by 5.2% year over year in November. Idaho, Utah and Washington, D.C. saw home price declines. The states with the highest increases year over year were Rhode Island (11.6%), Connecticut (10.6%) and New Jersey (10.5%).
Chart 2: Year-over-year home price changes by state, November 2023
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Below is a look at home price changes in 10 large, select U.S. metros in November, with Miami posting the highest gain at 8.3% year over year.
Chart 3: Year-over-year home price changes by select metro areas, November 2023
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL (70%-plus probability) is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL; Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL; Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA are also at very high risk for price declines.
Chart 4: Top five U.S. markets at risk of annual price declines, November 2023
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
Source: CoreLogic
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About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit corelogic.wpengine.com.
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