The Indian rupee is expected to open largely unchanged on Friday, with regional currencies showing resilience despite a fresh wave of global risk-off sentiment. A dip in U.S. Treasury yields has helped cushion Asian markets, even as concerns over tech valuations pressured U.S. equities, sending the S&P 500 down 1.6%.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward suggests the rupee will start the session near Thursday’s close of 88.7050 per dollar. Most Asian currencies were slightly stronger, supported by the softer dollar index, which slipped to 100.14.
Investor sentiment remained mixed following the delayed U.S. September jobs report. While job additions surpassed expectations, an uptick in the unemployment rate and downward revisions to previous months created uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s December policy outlook. Morgan Stanley noted that despite weaker August revisions, the stronger three-month payroll average reduces the likelihood of a December rate cut. Current market pricing continues to reflect roughly a one-in-three chance of such a move.
Currency traders in India expect limited rupee volatility in the near term, citing the Reserve Bank of India’s consistent defense of the 88.80 level. The RBI’s active intervention has effectively created a soft cap on USD/INR, keeping price action anchored. With this backdrop, traders see little room for sharp swings unless major global developments arise.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra emphasized on Thursday that India’s robust foreign exchange reserves provide “ample protection” for the currency. He attributed recent weakness to elevated dollar demand, which he believes could ease if India and the U.S. finalize a trade agreement.
Key market indicators show Brent crude down 1.1% at $62.7 per barrel, the U.S. 10-year yield at 4.10%, and mixed foreign investor flows—NSDL reported $365.7 million in net equity purchases and $1.6 million in net bond sales on Nov. 19.
This combination of strong reserves, central bank support, and muted global cues suggests the rupee will continue to trade within a stable, narrow range in the immediate term.
