US stock futures tumbled on Monday while oil prices surged after military strikes by the US and Israel on Iran were followed by counterattacks, sending shockwaves through global markets.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) slumped 1.2%, or over 500 points. Contracts on the S&P 500 (ES=F) sank 1.1%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) dived 1.4% as the escalating Middle East conflict spurred a retreat from risk assets.
The impact on oil prices, and in turn on inflation, is front of mind for investors already uneasy about the backdrop for stocks. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed February in negative territory after renewed volatility in AI and software names rattled markets.
Oil prices jumped Monday, with Brent crude futures (BZ=F) surging as much as 13% to top $82 a barrel but moderating gains to slip below $80 at last check. West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) traded just below $73, up around 8%. While Iran is OPEC’s fourth-largest producer, markets are also bracing for sustained disruption in the key Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic is at a standstill.
Shares in energy major Exxon (XOM) popped in premarket. while defense stocks including Lockheed Martin (LMT) also found buyers. But travel-linked stocks fell, with Delta Air Lines (DAL) sliding nearly 6% in the fallout.
Elsewhere in markets, gold (GC=F) jumped to top $5,400 an ounce, even as the dollar (DX-Y.NYB) rose, as JPMorgan said it expects a “risk premium” gain of up to 10% for the precious metal. Treasury yields (^TNX) moved higher as markets cut back bets on interest-rate cuts on the prospect of hotter inflation.
The next key input into those rate calculations comes Friday, with the release of the monthly jobs report. Economists expect US payrolls to have added 60,000 jobs in February, down from January’s stronger-than-expected 130,000 gain that eased recession fears.
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