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Stock market today: Dow gains, S&P 500 and Nasdaq drop to start pivotal week as markets weigh Iran peace odds


US stocks diverged on Monday as investors assessed a reported Iran proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Microsoft said its exclusive partnership with OpenAI was ending.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose roughly 0.1%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) hovered above the flat line, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 0.2% after both closed out last week at record highs.

Iran has put forward a new proposal to lift its blockade of the key Hormuz waterway and end the war, but would push nuclear negotiations to a later date, Axios reported — even as Tehran’s nuclear program remains a red line for the White House.

Fears over inflationary pressures have buffeted markets, given restrictions on global oil and other supply flows threatens to push up prices across a wide range of industries. Traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz remained near zero Monday morning, according to Bloomberg oil strategists.

Oil prices leaned higher, with Brent crude futures (BZ=F) holding above $100 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) crossing $96.

This week is pivotal for markets, with quarterly results from most of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps due for release, watched closely for progress on AI. Microsoft (MSFT) shares fell Monday after the software giant said it would no longer have exclusive access to OpenAI’s lineup. A revenue-sharing agreement between the two companies is also ending.

Another key event is the Federal Reserve policy decision at its two-day meeting starting Tuesday. The central bank is largely expected to hold rates steady as the Iran conflict clouds the inflationary outlook.

The meeting is expected to be the penultimate one chaired by Jerome Powell before leadership transitions to Kevin Warsh, who now faces a crucial confirmation vote soon.

LIVE 6 updates

  • Jake Conley

    US stock market splits at the opening bell

    The US stock market began Monday’s trading session on mixed footing as investors prepared for the busiest week of earnings for the quarter and digested a potential deal offer from Tehran to Washington.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained roughly 0.1%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) traded 0.1% lower, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped roughly 0.3%.

    Axios reported Monday morning that Iran has offered to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the Gulf conflict if the US agrees to push talks over Tehran’s nuclear program down the road. Yet the nuclear program remains key to US ambitions for a new deal with Iran, and traffic through the critical waterway remains near zero.

    Dominating headlines this week will be earnings from five out of seven “Magnificent Seven” Big Tech leaders, and a policy decision from the Federal Reserve in what is likely to be Jerome Powell’s last meeting as chair.

    Microsoft shares dropped at the open after the company said it would no longer maintain exclusive access to OpenAI, also announcing an end to a revenue-sharing agreement between the two tech firms.

  • Jake Conley

    Oil prices rise as progress on US-Iran negotiations remains elusive

    Oil prices ticked up Monday morning as diplomatic progress between the US and Iran remained elusive and the two sides’ dual blockade kept shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz near zero.

    Futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, gained 1.9% on the session to hold above the key $100 per barrel mark, while those on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) notched a similar jump to trade above $96 per barrel.

    Iran has reportedly offered Washington a new off-ramp to the conflict, Axios reported Monday morning, with a proposal to extend the current ceasefire between the two sides and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while pushing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program to a later date.

    However, Iran’s nuclear program has remained a key red line for the Trump administration, which is looking for a near-complete dismantling of Tehran’s uranium enrichment capabilities and a surrender of the country’s current stores of nuclear material.

    Progress forward on potential second-round negotiations between Washington and Tehran fell apart over the weekend after the White House canceled a trip to Pakistan for Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, the trio that has been leading talks for the US.

  • Jake Conley

    United CEO says merger talks with American Airlines have ended

    United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby said Monday that talks about a potential merger with American Airlines (AAL) had ended, writing in a public statement that “without a willing partner, something this big simply can’t get done.”

    United fell by less than 1% in premarket trading, while American gained less than 1%.

    In a long statement shared by the airline early Monday morning, Kirby confirmed he had approached American Airlines in recent weeks about a potential merger that could create a “truly great airline that customers love.”

    Yet American, instead of talking with United, “declined to engage and instead responded by publicly closing the door,” Kirby wrote. Shortly after initial news reports that Kirby was pitching a merger, American Airlines said they were not interested in such a plan.

    In comments on American’s first quarter earnings call, CEO Robert Isom said such a plan would be “bad for customers, bad for the industry and ultimately, that would be bad for American Airlines.”

    “The idea of the two largest airlines in the world getting together, that is something that we’ve viewed as being anti-competitive and obviously everybody that has weighed in suggests the same thing,” Isom said.

  • Fed expected to stand pat this week amid ongoing uncertainty from Iran conflict

    Traders are all but unanimous in their bets that the Fed will keep any potential rate changes on hold at the April meeting this week — Jerome Powell’s second-to-last as chair.

    Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger digs into what to expect:

    Federal Reserve officials meet this week as the war in the Middle East reaches the two-month mark, creating continued uncertainty about the impact on the economy. It’s likely to keep the central bank holding interest rates where they are.

    “There’s still uncertainty about how this war is going to be resolved, and oil prices have been volatile. But they’re still well above where they were before the war started, and so that will eventually have an impact on the economy,” former Cleveland Federal Reserve president Loretta Mester said.

    Policymakers are weighing the war’s impact on inflation and growth, waiting to see how severe it will be, depending on how long the war lasts.

    Esther George, former president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, said there’s a sense that the ripple effects will be felt through the summer and into the fall, keeping oil prices higher and impacting supplies.

    Read more here.

  • China blocks Meta’s $2 billion acquisition of AI firm Manus

    Bloomberg reports:

    China has decided to block Meta Platforms Inc.’s (META) $2 billion acquisition of agentic AI startup Manus, a surprise move to unwind a controversial deal that’s drawn fire for the leakage of technology to the US.

    The National Development and Reform Commission ordered the deal’s cancellation in a brief statement Monday. The decision was made in accordance with laws and regulations, the powerful state planner said in a one-line notice, without elaborating.

    The ruling is likely to send a chill through China’s burgeoning AI sector, and emerged weeks before a high-profile summit between US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Beijing has tightened scrutiny of key industry firms in the wake of the deal, which has been largely completed. Initially hailed as a template for startups with global aspirations, critics have since lamented the loss of valuable technology to a geopolitical rival.

    Read more here.

  • Goldman hikes oil forecasts again as ‘Hormuz shock’ builds

    Bloomberg reports:

    Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted oil-price forecasts as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz spurs “extreme” inventory draws.

    Brent is set to average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter, up from a previous outlook for $80, analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in an April 27 note. The figure for that period is now “nearly $30 higher than before the Hormuz shock,” they said, adding to recent revisions.

    “We estimate that 14.5 million barrels a day of Persian Gulf crude production losses are driving global oil inventories to draw at a record 11 to 12 million barrel-a-day pace in April,” they said. Given that such “extreme inventory draws are not sustainable, even sharper demand losses could be required if the supply shock persists longer,” they added.

    Read more here.



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Tags :inflationary pressuresIranMicrosoftNASDAQ CompositeStrait of Hormuz
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