National defense, energy security and data protection will be major themes in private capital investment over the next 10 years, according to comments by Harvey Schwartz, CEO of private equity firm Carlyle Group, at the BNY INSITE 2026 conference in Aurora, Colo.
Featured as the main speaker at a session titled “A CEO’s Perspective on the Future of Private Markets,” Schwartz said the private capital evolution is still in the early stages, but has reached an important inflection point. After decades of relative geopolitical stability established in the wake of World War II, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have brought the era of economic cooperation to an end, and individual countries are increasingly prioritizing national defense, energy security and data protection. With many governments facing high deficits, however, the money for these sectors will be coming from private capital sources, including private wealth, Schwartz noted.
“Everywhere I go in the world, the narrative, the discussion is the same. Everyone is trying to solve for national security, economic growth and political stability,” he said.
In the past, national security would largely involve defense industries, Schwartz added. But today it involves money flowing to a combination of sectors, including traditional and renewable energy and data protection.
“This audience will be a big driver of that capital if they elect to over the next 10 years,” Schwartz said. He admitted that it’s challenging to price the risk on geopolitical trends, but added: “I do think it will provide for us unique opportunities to deploy capital, and I think the marginal returns on that capital will end up being quite attractive over the next decade.”
Schwartz also noted that Carlyle focuses on diversification across its private wealth vehicles to deliver the best performance and risk protection, ensuring that no single sector accounts for the majority of the asset portfolio.
“You won’t have that one 30% to 40% winner, and you also mitigate a lot of the downside,” he said.
