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The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is on pace for its fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains. The index has advanced 11% to 7,575 in 2026.
Analysts at Oppenheimer and Citigroup expect the S&P 500 to top 8,000 this year. But Julian Emanuel, chief equity strategist at Evercore, says the index could move even higher. His bull-case target of 9,000 implies 19% upside from its current level.
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Evercore’s Julian Emanuel says the S&P 500 could hit 9,000 in 2026
Julian Emanuel’s base-case target says the S&P 500 will hit 7,750 in 2026. But he recently told CNBC that his bull-case target of 9,000 has become more likely since oil prices have dropped sharply and S&P 500 companies are on pace to report their fastest earnings growth since 2021.
Brent crude oil (an international benchmark) hit $124 per barrel in May, the highest level since the summer of 2022. In turn, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation increased to a three-year high of 4.2% in May, and the Federal Reserve became far more hawkish in its outlook. Nine of 18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members signaled at least one interest rate hike in 2026 at the June meeting, up from zero in March.
However, Brent crude has fallen about 40% to $75 per barrel since the FOMC made those projections, putting downward pressure on energy prices. Emanuel expects that trend to continue. “We are in the peak of inflation, and it is likely to cool down over the rest of the year,” he told CNBC. For that reason, Emanuel believes the Fed will hold rates steady rather than hike them in the remaining months of 2026.
So what? Investors have $8 trillion in money market funds, according to Emanuel. Those investment vehicles were attractive when oil prices were increasing, as money market funds pay more when interest rates rise. But Emanuel argues that, because rate hikes are now unlikely, investors will move that cash into stocks, especially artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.
Here’s the big picture: Emanuel sees a bull-case scenario in which cooling inflation keeps the Federal Reserve on hold, meaning interest rates remain unchanged through the end of the year. Meanwhile, strong corporate earnings driven by AI spending will pull capital that had been parked in money market funds back into stocks. That could push the S&P 500 to 9,000 by year’s end.
