How higher bond yields can prove a stumbling block for the stock market
Higher bond yields, even after the U.S. Treasury’s pledge to buy back some longer-dated debt, could make the stock market more vulnerable to any coming shocks. Bond yields were higher Thursday , erasing the brief deline that followed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement Wednesday that the department will more than double the size of its government debt repurchases. Bessent told CNBC Thursday that the debt buyback program could exceed the $4 billion upper limit referenced the day before. The change is set to start Sept. 9 and run through Nov. 4. On Thursday, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond, which more closely reflects concerns around the U.S. deficit than do shorter-dated bills and notes, climbed above 5.23%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which tracks inflation worries, rose to 4.20%. Yet the stock market reaction has been generally muted, despite global bond yields climbing to multidecade highs. The major stock averages were down Thursday, and headed for a losing week, but declines have been modest and strong corporate earnings have left many investors confident in future returns. But the bond market is flashing red lights as it grapples with concerns about surging U.S. government debt, increased corporate debt issuance to pay for artificial intelligence investment and higher inflation thanks to war in the Middle East — all of which have investors demanding higher term premiums. Here are the ways that higher yields could start to affect the stock market Speed of the moves What may be more important than the level of bond yields is how quickly they rise, given that some of the moves look more like a normalization of rates following the financial crisis and the pandemic. For all of the recent drama, CFRA noted that the 10-year Treasury yield has averaged 4.4% in 2026, compared to 4.3% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2024. “It will likely take a lot more from the bond market to derail this nearly four-year-old bull market,” wrote Arun Sundaram, an investment strategist at CFRA. “Historically, it is the speed of the move in yields, not the absolute level, that tends to cause the most damage.” “For now, the bond market is adjusting, not breaking, and equities appear comfortable with that distinction,” Sundaram added. Hurting corporate profits Higher borrowing costs will also hurt corporate bottom lines, coming at a critical time for businesses that are spending freely to build out artificial intelligence infrastructure. More expensive capital will likely hurt free cash flow and profit margins over time. That’s a key reason why Alphabet shares tumbled after it reported its latest earnings. The Google parent posted negative free cash flow for the first time since going public in 2004. Creative sources of funding Higher yields could also spur companies to seek alternative sources of funding. Jessica Inskip, director of investor research at StockBrokers.com , said businesses could be encouraged to sell equity, for example, as opposed to debt, to raise capital. Any resulting dilution of shareholders could also weigh on the stock market. “It can create a ceiling on the stock market because the cost of capital is increasing,” Inskip said. Greater competition The higher bond yields climb, the more investors are going to find them a safer alternative to stocks — meaning they may start to allocate more of their cash to fixed income and less to riskier equity. Winners and losers Commodities are a major winner, as investors turn to real assets amid uncertainty over the direction of the yield curve. Gold has rallied since the surprise U.S. Treasury liquidity move, as have copper and other metals. Bitcoin, while not a hard asset like raw materials or real estate, has acted as another safe haven investors are piling into this week: the cryptocurrency has surged 11% in just two days. An industry push to get the Clarity Act through Congress has also supported the cryptocurrency. Stocks that are tied to commodities could especially benefit. Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, identified copper producer Freeport-McMoRan as a stock that looks poised to break out, on a technical basis. Shares are up more than 16% over the last three months. Ultimately, a stable bond market is supportive of stocks. But instability isn’t the only headwind stocks are facing, especially as the calendar turns toward the midterms. What investors are hoping for above all is clarity.
