[Week of 2026/10/05] Next Week’s Stock Market Outlook: Testing the 70,000 Mark with a Rising Floor｜お茶にしようか

📈 Overall Outlook: Clear Trend of Recovery, Market Poised to Challenge the 70,000 Level
Next week’s stock market is expected to see the Nikkei Stock Average test a return to the 70,000 mark, supported by the sharp recovery seen over the three consecutive weeks of gains leading up to last week. Although the Nikkei Stock Average was pressured by profit-taking at the end of last week, it closed at 68,309 yen and has been steadily raising its floor above major moving averages. In overnight futures trading, there were moments when it was bought up to the high 69,000 yen range, with strong capital inflows into AI and semiconductor-related stocks powerfully driving the market. While there is a possibility of a temporary correction due to caution over high prices, the appetite for buying on dips remains strong, and the underlying trend appears solid. We project the expected range for the Nikkei Stock Average next week to be between 67,000 and 70,000 yen.

🇯🇵 Japanese Market: AI and Semiconductor Stocks Lead, Profit-Taking at Milestones
In the domestic market, buying and upward momentum are spreading from major semiconductor stocks like Tokyo Electron and Advantest to memory-related stocks such as Kioxia Holdings, which are expected to see increased demand. In the currency market, although there are cautious views regarding the rise in domestic interest rates and the Bank of Japan’s policy stance, the fact that excessive yen appreciation is being suppressed provides a sense of relief for export-related stocks. While profit-taking is likely to occur as the market approaches the psychological milestone of 70,000 yen in the short term, we expect institutional investors to provide solid support through buying on dips.

🇺🇸 US Market: Speculation Ahead of US September Employment Report and Major Corporate Earnings
In the US market, attention is focused on major economic indicators, including the US September employment report to be released in the latter half of this week, as well as statements from Federal Reserve officials. Confidence in a soft-landing scenario, where a gradual slowdown in the labor market and cooling inflation coexist, is supporting stock prices, and major high-tech stocks and AI infrastructure-related stocks continue to show strength. Furthermore, ahead of the full-scale release of July-September earnings starting in mid-October, we expect firm performance, particularly in the IT and semiconductor sectors where earnings beats are anticipated.

⚠️ Risk Factors: Short-Term Correction from Overheating and Volatility in US Economic Indicators
A point to be cautious about is rapid profit-taking due to a sense of short-term market overheating. As a reaction to the Nikkei’s daily expansion in price range, there is a risk of a sudden dip occurring just before the milestone. Additionally, if economic data, including the weekend’s US employment report, shows stronger growth than expected, we may see a scenario where rising US interest rates become a burden on growth stocks. Furthermore, continued attention must be paid to trends in crude oil prices and geopolitical risks.

🗓️ Upcoming Schedule for Next Week
10/05 (Mon): Japan’s September Consumer Confidence Survey, US September ISM Non-Manufacturing Index release
10/06 (Tue): Japan’s August Household Survey, US August Trade Balance release
10/07 (Wed): Japan’s August Coincident Index (preliminary), US August Consumer Credit release
10/08 (Thu): Japan’s August Monthly Labor Survey, FOMC Minutes (September meeting) release
10/09 (Fri): Japan’s Option SQ calculation, US September Employment Report release

We hope this serves as a helpful reference for your investment decisions.