Currencies

Dollar slips while yen jumps to five-week high as traders flock to safe havens


Investing.com — The U.S. dollar slipped on Thursday, as a steep sell-off in the artificial intelligence trade on Wall Street drove institutional allocators towards liquid duration and non-dollar currencies. The safe-haven Japanese yen caught a bid, rising to a five-week high against the greenback.

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Currency market participants were also gearing up for latest interest rate decisions next week from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the world’s premier currency against a basket of six major peers, dipped 0.2% to 101.61.

U.S. investors seek safe havens

With this week’s U.S. economic calendar light and the Fed in a blackout period, the catalysts for the dollar were limited to moves in oil prices, the bond market, and on Wall Street. Friday was a classic risk-off session, with investors dumping high-growth communication services and technology stocks and flocking to the safety of defensive sectors and U.S. Treasuries.

The decline was led by elevated jitters around the massive amounts of debt being issued by companies to fuel their AI infrastructure buildouts. Meta Platforms, one of the premier AI hyperscalers, in its latest quarterly report indicated a slight rise in capital spending forecasts, while also announcing the establishment of a new class of nonvoting stock to raise capital for its AI ambitions.

Among currencies, the U.S. dollar, which can be heavily affected by capital spending concerns, was shunned for the traditional safety of the Japanese yen.

The focus is now on quarterly reports from other AI hyperscalers next week, along with the Fed’s October interest rate decision. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely anticipated to hold rates steady, and eyes will be on Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.

“Warsh is likely to signal that recent inflation data reinforce expectations from the September meeting that further tightening will likely be needed over time,” Deutsche Bank analysts led by Matthew Luzzetti said.

“However, skipping October allows officials more time to assess trends in the data. In the wake of the July press conference, which triggered concerns about the Fed’s commitment to price stability, Warsh will want to avoid any indications that the Fed is unwilling to take appropriate action against sticky inflation,” they added.

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Yen catches bid, technical breakout triggers dollar unwind

The Japanese yen emerged as the primary beneficiary of the dollar’s retreat, snapping out of its October consolidation channel and forcing short-covering flows. The currency surged to 156.80 a dollar, its highest since September 18.

While money markets have fully priced in an interest rate hold from the BOJ at its upcoming meeting, investors are scrutinizing Governor Kazuo Ueda’s updated inflation projections. Swaps markets are increasingly pricing in the BOJ’s next rate increase for early next year.

Persistent fears of official currency intervention by Japanese authorities near the 158 level for the yen continue to discourage traders from rebuilding aggressive long-dollar positions.

Euro slips slightly, stays above $1.12

Over in Europe, the single currency inched 0.2% lower to $1.1213, mostly halting its recent slide as euro-short positions were pared back alongside the broader greenback pullback.

Upside for the single currency remains tightly constrained by escalating fiscal and political turmoil in Paris. French 10-year government bond yields surged past 5.00% to touch their highest levels since 2002 on Wednesday, as widespread civil unrest over public service cuts highlighted the extreme political difficulty President Emmanuel Macron faces in reigning in France’s 5.4% GDP budget deficit.

The ECB is widely anticipated to keep its deposit facility rate on hold at 2.50% next week, though fixed-income markets have virtually priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike before the end of the year to combat persistent energy-driven inflation.

Aussie dollar pauses following four-day rally

The Australian dollar shed 0.1% to $0.7018, consolidating recent gains after touching three-week highs earlier in the week.

Fundamental backing for the Aussie remains firm following warnings from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser that Australia’s inflation outlook has deteriorated, driven in part by elevated crude oil prices.

Hauser’s remarks have solidified expectations that the RBA will keep interest rates higher for longer compared to global peers.

Ayushman Ojha and Pranav Kashyap contributed to this article

Original Article

Dollar slips while yen jumps to five-week high as traders flock to safe havens

U.S. Treasury yields crater, 10-yr closes at one-month low on safe-haven demand

Canadian dollar strengthens as oil prices, BoC rate hike bets support loonie



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