Currencies

Asian Currencies Hit 20-Year Low as Dollar Surge Crushes Oil Purchasing Power


null - Seoul Economic Daily Finance News from South Korea

▲ AI PRISM* Customized Economic Briefing

*Editor’s Note: ‘AI PRISM’ (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an AI-based customized news recommendation and summarization service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six tailored news items for each reader type.

■ Combined Shock of Asian Energy Crisis and Dollar Surge: As Asian crude oil supply plunged following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war, the dollar soared to its highest level in 20 years, sending the real purchasing power of Asian nations into freefall. The won-dollar exchange rate breached 1,502 won and the yen-dollar rate surpassed 159 yen, raising warnings that the impact could be more severe than the 1970s oil shocks.

■ Google TurboQuant Sparks Memory Semiconductor Demand Debate: Google Research unveiled TurboQuant, a compression algorithm that reduces AI memory usage by up to six times, triggering simultaneous selloffs in Samsung Electronics (005930) (-4.71%), SK hynix (000660) (-6.23%), and Micron (-3.40%). However, analysts note the debate is evenly split, with counterarguments that the actual memory reduction effect is limited to 2.6 times at most and that the technology could accelerate AI mass adoption, ultimately expanding overall demand.

■ OECD Sharply Cuts Korea Growth Amid Stagflation Concerns: The OECD lowered Korea’s growth forecast for this year by 0.4 percentage points from 2.1% to 1.7%, in stark contrast to the United States (revised upward) and Japan (maintained). The inflation outlook also surged from 1.8% to 2.7%, prompting assessments that Korea stands at a stagflation crossroads amid a triple burden of high prices, a high exchange rate, and high interest rates.

[News of Interest to Global Investors]

1. Oil-Starved Asian Nations Struggle as Strong Dollar Erodes Purchasing Power

– Key Summary: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war has sharply reduced Middle Eastern crude supply, which accounts for 60% of Asia’s total oil demand. The dollar’s value against major Asian currencies surged to a 20-year high, with the yen falling to 159.47, the won to 1,502.23, and the Indian rupee to 93.975 — levels comparable to the 2008 financial crisis. Russian crude oil, a potential alternative, has also seen its transport capacity decline by nearly 40% due to Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Japan’s government is reviewing intervention in crude oil futures markets and lifting restrictions on coal-fired power generation, as countries across the region scramble to mount emergency responses.

2. Google TurboQuant Triggers Semiconductor Shock — Counterargument: “AI Mass Adoption Will Boost Demand”

– Key Summary: After Google Research unveiled TurboQuant, a compression algorithm that reduces AI memory usage by up to six times, Micron plunged 17.2% from its peak while Samsung Electronics (-4.71%) and SK hynix (-6.23%) also fell in tandem. However, since 70–80% of AI inference is already performed in 8-bit precision, the actual memory reduction effect is limited to 2.6 times at most, according to analysts. Morgan Stanley stated, “If AI operating costs fall to one-sixth, it will not reduce overall memory demand but rather serve as a catalyst to expand the entire AI market pie.” Some observers also caution against excessive fear, noting that the domestic semiconductor sector’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at just 6.5 times.

3. U.S. Revised Up, Japan Unchanged — OECD Cuts Korea Growth From 2.1% to 1.7%

– Key Summary: The OECD cut Korea’s growth forecast for this year by 0.4 percentage points from 2.1% to 1.7%, in stark contrast to the United States (revised upward from 1.7% to 2.0%) and Japan (maintained at 0.9%). The inflation outlook surged 0.9 percentage points from 1.8% to 2.7%, while Brent crude fluctuates around $100 per barrel and the won-dollar exchange rate has breached the 1,500 won level. The three-year government bond yield also rose 57.6 basis points from pre-war levels to 3.617%. The OECD explained that a prolonged war could place additional burdens on production activity due to energy shortages.

[Reference News for Global Investors]

4. Meta Lays Off 700 as It Abandons Metaverse

– Key Summary: Meta laid off an additional 700 employees from its VR and metaverse subsidiary Reality Labs, bringing total workforce reductions to more than 2,200 this year alone. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly committed to investing at least $115 billion (approximately 173 trillion won) in AI this year and ordered a reduction of up to 20% of the total workforce of approximately 79,000. The company also unveiled an exceptional compensation plan granting six top executives additional stock options if market capitalization reaches $9 trillion by 2031. The AI pivot among Big Tech is accelerating, intensifying restructuring across non-AI divisions.

5. Government to Cap National Pension Service Foreign Currency Bond Issuance

– Key Summary: The government decided to limit the National Pension Service’s (NPS) foreign currency bond issuance to a certain proportion of its overseas investments. First Vice Minister of Health and Welfare Lee Sran said, “Given that the foreign exchange market is not large and overseas investment continues to grow, we have no choice but to consider diversifying foreign currency funding,” announcing the plan to set caps. With the won-dollar exchange rate currently hovering above 1,500 won, currency hedging ratios have been permitted up to 10%, and a significant portion of this year’s dollar procurement for overseas investment has already been completed. The strategy aims to find a balance where foreign currency bond issuance contributes to exchange rate stability without undermining fund returns.

6. LS Eco Forges Alliance with Global Rare Earth Company

– Key Summary: LS Eco Energy (229640) signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement with Lynas, the world’s second-largest rare earth company based in Australia, through a 30 billion won convertible bond exchange. This secures a non-Chinese rare earth procurement channel at a time when China controls 85% of magnet raw material supply. Under the agreement, LS Eco Energy plans to establish a subsidiary in Vietnam for permanent magnet metal production and link it with LS Cable’s permanent magnet factory in the United States. The restructuring of rare earth supply chains is accelerating as demand surges for actuators — critical components in physical AI robots and electric vehicles.

▶ Go to article: Oil-Starved Asian Nations Struggle as Strong Dollar Erodes Purchasing Power

▶ Go to article: The Paradox of Treasury Stock Cancellation — May Disqualify Firms From ‘High Dividend’ Status

▶ Go to article: Lee Chan-jin: “Insurers’ Private Debt Investments Reach 29 Trillion Won”

null - Seoul Economic Daily Finance News from South Korea
null - Seoul Economic Daily Finance News from South Korea
null - Seoul Economic Daily Finance News from South Korea
null - Seoul Economic Daily Finance News from South Korea
null - Seoul Economic Daily Finance News from South Korea
null - Seoul Economic Daily Finance News from South Korea



Source link

Leave a Response