d down, and Indonesia’s rupiah was steadier on the day but still pressured year to date as investors look to Bank Indonesia, where rates are expected to be held. The result is more headline-driven, two-way FX trading, even as equities stay focused on earnings and the multi-year AI infrastructure buildout.
Why should I care?
For markets: Currencies are flinching faster than stocks.
FX tends to price geopolitical energy risk first, while stock investors often wait for clearer evidence of an earnings hit. That’s why you can see a weaker won, baht, or peso at the same time regional shares hold up. If oil disruptions look more durable, markets with bigger fuel import needs may face a higher risk premium than export– or tech-heavy peers.
The bigger picture: Oil chokepoints still feed Asia’s inflation cycle.
Hormuz is a reminder that inflation isn’t just about domestic demand – it can be imported through energy prices. If crude stays elevated, central banks may have less room to cut rates, because they’ll also be trying to defend currencies and anchor inflation expectations. That can raise the cost of stability for emerging markets, even when the growth narrative looks fine on the surface.
