Rupee snaps 9-day losing streak to emerge Asia’s top-performing currency | Economy & Policy News
The rupee snapped a nine-day losing streak on Thursday and emerged as the best-performing Asian currency for the day, aided by heavy intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the non-deliverable forwards (NDF) market and easing crude oil prices, dealers said.
The domestic currency appreciated to near 96 per dollar ahead of trading hours after the central bank intervened aggressively, dealers said. The rupee strengthened by 65 paise to settle at 96.20 per dollar against the previous close of 96.83 per dollar.
The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium also eased, with the one-year forward rate trading at 99.73 compared with 100.25 on Wednesday. It had touched an intraday high of 100.33 in the previous session amid persistent pressure on the local currency.
The rupee’s recovery came even as most Asian currencies traded mixed. Data showed the rupee had declined 11.2 per cent against the US dollar over the past one year, making it among the worst-performing Asian currencies during that period. However, on Thursday, it outperformed regional peers with a gain of 0.65 per cent.
“The Indian rupee snapped a nine-day losing streak to emerge as Asia’s top-performing currency. This recovery follows a retracement in crude oil prices amid tentative signs of easing geopolitical friction, alongside active central bank intervention,” said Dilip Parmar, research analyst at HDFC Securities.
Brent crude oil prices fell to $104 per barrel against the previous day’s $109 per barrel. The dollar index also fell to 99.12 against the previous day’s 99.44. It measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies.
“Moving forward, investor focus will remain anchored on geopolitical developments and the upcoming RBI monetary policy review. From a technical standpoint, spot USDINR is finding firm support at 95.74, while immediate resistance remains capped at 96.50,” Parmar added.
Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year government bond yield hardened by 4 basis points to 7.11 per cent as a section of the market is expecting an interest rate hike in the upcoming June policy due to inflation risks following elevated crude oil prices.
“We expect 50 bps of rate hikes to 5.75 per cent in FY27, beginning in June, on a higher CPI view,” economists at Standard Chartered Bank said. Earlier, Standard Chartered was expecting status quo in FY27. The economists said the sharper-than-expected pace of rupee depreciation raises the risk of second-order effects on CPI and, in their view, strengthens the case for a hike.
“We expect 50 bps of hikes, split equally between June and August. However, if there is no hike in June, the repo rate could be hiked by 50 bps in August,” the report said.
In a panel discussion organised by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on May 12, 2026, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank is keeping a close vigil on whether and when the supply shock can become embedded in the general price level that may warrant monetary policy action.
After cutting the policy repo rate by 125 bps in 2025, the six-member rate-setting panel of the central bank kept the rate unchanged in the two meetings in 2026. The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled for June 3-5.
