For most of the postwar era, the answer to the question “where do I park my money when the world gets scary?” was simple—the U.S. dollar. More specifically, you could tell a nervous client to put their money into short-term (one-year Treasurys), which were always liquid, deep, and backed by the world’s most credible central bank. But lately, that solution has been questioned.
Since the start of the second Donald Trump presidency in 2025, the dollar has lost more than 10% of its value against other major currencies. Tariffs, slowing growth, stagnant hiring, and three Fed rate cuts have all weighed down the greenback. Sure, we saw a brief rally in the U.S. dollar at the outset of the Iran conflict. That was due to classic safe-haven flows and a petrodollar bid as oil prices jumped to over $100 per barrel. But that bump has faded. Morgan Stanley, among others, argue that the dollar is no longer a reliable store of value.
What is a Store of Value, Really?
As most of you know, a store of value is an asset, commodity, or currency that can be saved, retrieved, and exchanged in the future without its value deteriorating. Interest-bearing assets like U.S. Treasurys are a good example because they normally retain their value while generating income. No asset is more liquid than the U.S. dollar, but a 10% drop in purchasing power over the past 12 months is not what savers signed up for. The dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, but your risk-averse clients may need to consider alternatives so they can sleep at night (see below).
Gold: This Year’s Quiet Winner
Take gold. This widely held precious metal is up roughly 46% for the year as we go to press and up more than 150% over the past five years, nearly doubling the gains of the S&P 500 over a comparable period. The mechanics are straightforward. Gold, oil, and copper are priced in dollars. When the dollar weakens, it takes more dollars to buy the same ounce or barrel. That inverse relationship is real, persistent, and the reason central banks have been buying bullion at a record pace. For clients who want a currency hedge rather than a growth bet, physical gold has certainly earned a seat at the table.
Bitcoin: Not the Hedge its Champions Claim
From 2022 through 2024, gold and Bitcoin moved in sync, and the crypto evangelists declared digital gold had arrived. That correlation broke in early 2025, however. Bitcoin is now down roughly 25% over the past year and nearly 40% from its October 2025 peak. When geopolitical stress hit, gold became the fallback, and Bitcoin whales sold off in a falling market. Bitcoin’s 21-million maximum supply story remains intellectually clean, but in practice, I’ve found that Bitcoin trades like a high-beta tech stock. Under stress, it has not proven to be a safe haven for money. Bitcoin may ultimately emerge as a stable store of value, but for most clients, keep their allocation limited to the speculation bucket.
Where Else Can Money Hide?
A weak dollar rewards a specific set of assets:
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Commodities — gold first, but don’t forget oil, copper, and agricultural products. They all benefit from the same dollar profile.
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Defensive equities — stocks of healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples companies that issue consistent dividends will weather currency stress better than cyclical stocks will.
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International stocks — when the dollar falls, foreign earnings translate into more dollars for investors. Developed markets with appreciating currencies often outperform dollar-based securities.
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Real assets — income-producing commercial real estate and agricultural land are tangible, inflation-linked assets, and aren’t affected by changes in the US Dollar index (DXY).
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Foreign currencies — the Swiss franc, yen, and Norwegian krone are classic hard currencies for hire. Selective emerging market exposure (peso, rupee, etc.,) can add yield but will also add volatility.
Short-duration Treasury Inflation Protected Securities are another potential hedge. TIPS are dollar-denominated, but the inflation accrual gives clients something that the nominal Treasury cannot provide — real returns. Another strategy to consider is investing in a long-term Treasury bond fund such as TLT, ZROZ or EDV. They are generally priced at a 15% discount to par. A modest 1% decrease in interest rates will increase their price to $110 per share.
Value Stores for Retirement-Age Clients
For retirees and near-retirees, the goal is not to chase the best-performing asset of 2026; it’s to ensure no single currency or asset class derails the plan. If risk-averse clients believe that the 60/40 portfolio is no longer a safe harbor for conservative investors, a reasonable framework for a low-to-moderate risk tolerance might be:
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Equities: 40%–50%, with roughly one-third of that amount in international developed markets and a small EM sleeve.
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Fixed income: 30%–35%, laddered bonds, with a meaningful TIPS allocation and some short-duration high-quality credit.
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Cash and equivalents: 5%–10% — enough for liquidity, but not enough to bleed purchasing power.
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Real assets (REITs, infrastructure, farmland funds): 5%–10%.
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Gold: 5%–8% as a true currency hedge, ideally physical or a fully-backed ETF.
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Crypto: 0%–2%, and only for clients who can absorb a 50% drawdown without changing their behavior.
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Private Credit – For those who have looked at this asset class, there is still significant income value with nominal default risk.
However, as I explained earlier this year, Don’t Write Off the 60/40 Portfolio Just Yet. To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of its death are greatly exaggerated. The same could be said of the dollar. The greenback isn’t dying. But the era when you could hold cash and call yourself “conservative” might be over. Being conservative now means having a diversified cross-section of currencies, across asset classes and across the assumptions that any one government can change overnight. This is a conversation worth having with clients who are interest-rate-sensitive and concerned that their “conservative” portfolio is losing value.
Will Rogers Jr. may have said it best during the Great Depression: “I’m not so much concerned about the return on my money as I am about the return of my money.” That sentiment still holds today.
