Fear & Greed Index
These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading day on Thursday.
As we share this collection of market drivers, following Wednesday’s record-setting day for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, U.S. equity futures point to a modest but positive start to the trading day.
1. Pakistan stepped up efforts to ensure the U.S. and Iran prolong a ceasefire that’s set to end next week, allowing more time for the warring sides to negotiate a lasting peace deal… Still, there are many contentious issues for the countries to resolve, including the reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and sanctions relief for the Islamic Republic. For now, Washington and Tehran are saying they haven’t agreed to any ceasefire that lasts beyond late Tuesday U.S. time. (Bloomberg)
On Wednesday, we noted the pronounced market rebound so far this month landed the Nasdaq Composite in an overbought condition with its RSI reading of 71.51, and the S&P 500 isn’t far behind with its 69.31 figure as of Wednesday night’s close. The Fear & Greed Index has only just crossed back into “Greed” mode from last week’s “Fear” and that could mean the market wades deeper into an overbought condition.
While such a condition doesn’t predict a sharp move lower in the market, its brisk snapback and that condition could see short-term horizon traders look to take gains following the market’s new record levels and the large step up in the velocity of Q1 2026 earnings next week.
2. TSMC raised its annual revenue forecast on Thursday and said it was stepping up capital spending this year as the world’s biggest contract manufacturer of advanced AI chips scrambles to meet relentless hunger for its products… Full-year revenue in U.S. dollar terms would grow more than 30%, compared with a previous forecast of close to 30%, while capital expenditure would be at the high end of its earlier guidance of $52 billion to $56 billion… (Reuters)
What’s notable about TSM’s Q1 2026 results is the 6.4% sequential increase because it stands out against the typical Q1 decline we’ve seen compared to the company’s Q4 results. The clear driving factor behind that quarter-over-quarter increase was the 18% sequential jump in HPC segment sales, which houses TSM’s AI and data center business.
On a year-over-year basis, the HPC segment was up more than 45%. Smartphone, TSM’s second largest segment, posted a 13% sequential drop in Q1 2026. Those results and TSM’s consensus topping Q2 2025 revenue guidance bode well for the Portfolio’s chip holdings, while its upward 2026 capex tilt supports our position in Applied Materials (AMAT) .
3. Elon Musk’s staff have reached out to chip industry suppliers for his Terafab AI chip complex project with SpaceX and Tesla Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday. The team has approached companies including Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and Lam Research, and has asked chip manufacturing partner Samsung Electronics Co for support, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. (Reuters)
Indications are that the Terafab complex is targeting silicon manufacturing by 2029 and scaling from there to power Musk’s robotics and data center ambitions. That adds to our thinking about tight chip industry manufacturing capacity in 2026, 2027 and 2028, and reinforces our bullish stance on AMAT shares.
4. PepsiCo’s first-quarter earnings and revenue beat expectations as the company looks to revive its U.S. snack business. The beverage-and-snack company reported adjusted earnings of $1.61 a share on revenue of $19.4 billion. Wall Street had anticipated earnings of $1.54 a share on revenue of $18.9 billion, according to analysts polled by FactSet. PepsiCo’s management confirmed organic revenue growth of between 2% and 4% for fiscal 2026. (Barron’s)
While the beverage and snacking company surprised to the upside with its top- and bottom-line results for Q1 2026, what we saw in between those figures caught our eye. We’re referring to the company’s core operating margin rising just 10 basis points year over year to 15.7%, which is rather underwhelming given the reported 8.5% increase in Q1 2026 revenue compared to Q1 2025. Helping lift that core operating margin, PepsiCo noted a 4-percentage point benefit from foreign exchange (FX) translation. Given the move in the dollar, we’ll be interested in what management says about FX on a go-forward basis as well as its comments about input and transportation costs.
5. The EU is planning the biggest relaxation of its rules on corporate mergers in decades as Europe faces increasing pressure to build global champions capable of taking on U.S. and Chinese rivals. The European Commission will give greater weight to “innovation, investment and resilience of the internal market”, when deciding whether to sign off on deals, according to draft guidelines seen by the FT. The proposed change would mark the most radical shake-up by Brussels since the 2000s, when competition regulators put the effect of mergers on consumers at the heart of their decisions. (FT)
This shift has the potential to jump-start M&A activity in the eurozone, making it another tailwind for the Portfolio’s financial holdings, in addition to the improving outlook for domestic M&A activity and the IPO market.
6. In an extensive interview with NBC News, Tillis called Warsh “a perfect candidate,” but maintained that he would not vote to confirm him until the Trump administration ends its federal criminal probe into Powell. Warsh’s confirmation hearing to replace Powell is scheduled for next week, and he cannot be confirmed without Tillis’ vote, as long as Democrats remain unified against Trump’s pick. (NBC News)
We have just under a half a dozen Fed speakers making the rounds on Thursday and Friday, and it goes without saying we will be parsing any monetary policy comments they make following the recent March CPI and PPI reports. However, looming large over those presentations will be the pending changing of the guard for the Fed Chair slot.
While some tend to forget that monetary policy decisions are made by a committee vote, we will be very interested in comments from Warsh next week about the rekindling of inflation pressures and how that may influence his take on monetary policy. We could see more bluster out of Trump between now and then about Powell, but our suspicion is that the administration will ultimately drop the probe into Powell, which, in our view, is ridiculous.
7. Economic data on Thursday per TipRanks: Philadelphia Fed Index (April), Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims (Weekly), Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (March), EIA Natural Gas Inventories (Weekly).
8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Abbot Labs (ABT) , BNY Mellon (BK) , Schwab (SCHW) , PepsiCo (PEP) , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) , Travelers (TRV) . PM – Alcoa (AA) , Netflix (NFLX) .
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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMAT and NFLX.
