The S&P 500 closed above the 7,600 level for the first time on Tuesday, extending its record-setting rally, but Polymarket traders are leaning toward a weaker start for the benchmark index on Wednesday.
The S&P 500 gained 0.13% to finish at a record 7,609.78 on Tuesday. The June 3 Polymarket contract implied a 47% probability that the index will open higher, giving a slight edge to a lower open.
Why That Number Matters
Tuesday’s close underscored the strength of the market’s AI-driven rally.
However, investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East after U.S. Central Command said American forces intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles and drones and carried out “self-defense strikes” on Iran’s Qeshm Island following attempted attacks across the region.
Market participants are also weighing whether the benchmark’s rally can continue after nine consecutive weeks of gains.
Investors will receive fresh economic data on Wednesday, including the ADP private payrolls report for May, alongside April’s durable goods and factory orders.
The Bull Countercase
Artificial intelligence remains the dominant force behind the market’s advance.
Despite geopolitical tensions, some strategists believe investors remain focused on strong earnings growth, AI-related spending and signs that U.S.-Iran negotiations are continuing.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose again on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate crude gaining 1.74% and Brent crude advancing more than 1%, highlighting persistent geopolitical risks that could reignite inflation concerns.
S&P 500 futures were trading slightly lower early Wednesday, down 0.10%.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Tuesday at 7,595.40, below Monday’s close of 7,599.96, meaning the June 2 Polymarket bet resolved “Down.” The contract recorded about $78,474 in traded volume before settling.
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