US Stock Market Week Ahead: Record S&P 500 Rally Faces Iran Risk, Tesla Earnings and Fed Hearing

NEW YORK, April 19, 2026, 13:32 EDT

Wall Street starts the week with a new geopolitical headache. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed out Friday setting records, but by Sunday, the Strait of Hormuz remained closed—Iran changed course and kept the crucial passage shut. New talks between the U.S. and Iran are set for Monday in Pakistan.

It’s a tricky stretch for investors. Close to 20% of S&P 500 firms are on deck with results this week—Tesla and Boeing land Wednesday, Intel drops Thursday, and Procter & Gamble wraps things up on Friday. Next week brings Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta.

Earnings aren’t the whole story this week. March retail sales data, originally expected April 16, will now land at 8:30 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, just ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing at 10:00 a.m. Thursday sees weekly jobless claims—last week’s count was 207,000—and S&P Global’s April flash PMIs, those preliminary reads on factory and services activity.

Wall Street just witnessed one of its fastest turnarounds in recent memory. The S&P 500 has rocketed up 12% from its March 30 low, erasing a 9% slump and smashing back to all-time highs in only 11 sessions—a pace Bespoke says hasn’t shown up in data since 1928. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid didn’t hold back, calling the move “nothing short of astonishing.” Reuters

Friday wrapped up the rally. The S&P 500 landed at 7,126.06, the Nasdaq finished at 24,468.48, and the Dow settled at 49,447.43. Weekly gains: 4.53% for the S&P, 6.84% for the Nasdaq, and 3.2% for the Dow. The Nasdaq notched a 13-day winning streak—its best stretch since 1992. The Russell 2000? It, too, closed at a record.

Money is chasing momentum. Since just before the ceasefire was announced, global investors have funneled a net $28 billion into U.S. equities, according to LSEG/Lipper data. Of that, U.S.-based buyers made up nearly $23 billion. “The S&P’s engine is still humming,” said Gabriel Shahin, founder of Falcon Wealth Planning. Reuters

The focus now turns to whether profits can keep pace. LSEG IBES is projecting S&P 500 earnings for the first quarter to jump around 14%. Big U.S. banks, after a turbulent quarter, have already delivered strong trading revenues. Chuck Carlson at Horizon Investment Services noted the market’s attention is back on corporate profits, even if things are “not out of the woods.” Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise, meanwhile, pointed out the U.S. consumer “has not broken.” Reuters

The rally faces stiffer headwinds this weekend. On Saturday, shipping and security sources reported that two vessels were fired on in the Strait; by Sunday, the passage was still closed. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright weighed in, pointing to average gasoline prices at $4.05 per gallon (AAA) and warning that Americans probably won’t see prices dip below $3 until next year.

Inflation, rates, margins—all remain in focus. “Highlight just how precarious the situation is,” Energy Aspects founder Amrita Sen said after the weekend’s events. Boston Partners’ Michael Mullaney, for his part, had warned that markets seemed to be treating the last six weeks like a “bad dream,” despite the risk of higher oil still feeding into prices and Treasury yields. Reuters

Friday brought a relief rally, with hopes pinned on lower oil prices allowing investors to, as Lars Skovgaard put it, “start focussing on earnings.” Whether Wall Street sticks to that mindset could become clear Monday. Reuters