Home sellers should get their pricing ready for a bounce in September, according to Zoopla‘s latest House Price Index. UK house price growth has slowed to 1.3%, down from 1.7% a year ago, as sales agreed run 9% below last year’s levels.
This year has produced a sharper-than-usual summer slowdown, largely driven by elevated mortgage rates and political uncertainty.
Sales are still being agreed across the country, albeit at a slower pace than last year in most areas. The North East is bucking the trend entirely, with sales up around 4% on last year. Lower average house prices in the region cushion buyers, meaning the same rise in mortgage rates translates into a smaller cash increase than elsewhere.
For anyone considering a move this autumn, Zoopla’s data sends a clear message: September typically brings a second jump in sales activity during the second half of the year, meaning sellers who price correctly now, rather than waiting to see what the season brings, stand the best chance of benefiting.
An increase in total homes for sale across eight of the UK’s 11 regions means buyers have more choice than a year ago in almost every part of the country. That gives serious buyers real negotiating power, and fewer sales combined with greater negotiating power explains why UK house price inflation has slowed.
Higher borrowing costs remain a key factor for many buyers. Average mortgage rates fell from April’s peak of close to 5% to around 4.65% in June, before rising again to around 4.75% in July as tensions in the Middle East resurfaced. Rate rises have added roughly £125 a month, or £1,500 a year, to mortgage repayments for a typical UK home since January, with July’s increase adding further to that cost. This additional expense is a key reason sales agreed have fallen faster than usual this summer.
Localised hotspots and cold spots: Warrington and Hull lead the charge
Almost three-quarters of local markets (76%) have registered fewer sales than a year ago over the past three months, while just under a quarter (24%) have seen sales agreed hold up or grow. Behind the regional averages, some markets stand out from both the national and their own region’s trend.
Warrington, Hull and Dundee stand out as clear housing market hotspots, each showing a sustained increase in sales agreed and higher price growth than a year ago.
Bath, Oxford and Harrow sit at the other end of the scale, having moved from positive price growth twelve months ago to flat or negative levels now, alongside fewer sales.
Harrow was already flagged as a market under pressure in April, when homes there were taking 65% longer to sell than a year before; that weakness has now fed through into prices as well.
Conditions vary sharply, not just between regions but between neighbouring towns, and even between property types on the same street. Anyone buying or selling this year should speak to a local agent who can explain what’s actually happening in their specific market, rather than relying on national or regional averages alone.
UK house price growth diverges further, in cash terms as much as percentages
House price growth has slowed to 1.3% overall, down from 1.7% last year. The average UK home has gained £3,400 in value over the past 12 months and now sits at £272,800. That figure differs widely between regions: a typical home in Northern Ireland has gained £9,610, and one in the North West has gained £7,100, while a typical London home has lost £3,270, and the South East is down £1,480.
In percentage terms, the North West has seen growth edge higher from 3.2% to 3.5%, the North East from 2.6% to 3.1%, and Scotland from 2.8% to 3.1%. Over the same period, London has moved from modest growth of 0.7% into decline of -0.6%, and the South East has followed a similar path, from 0.7% to -0.3%.
Outlook: a September pick-up, if rates hold
Timing matters for anyone weighing up a move. Homeowners without a pressing need to sell face little cost in waiting, since mortgage rates remain elevated and there’s no strong penalty for holding off. For those who do need to move, however, history points to a clear pattern.
Looking at the past three autumns, the share of homes cutting their asking price by 5% or more consistently peaks in September, the same month sales activity typically recovers from its summer low. The autumn bounce isn’t a case of buyers spontaneously returning; it happens because sellers adjust their pricing to better align with what buyers are prepared to pay.
Homes still sitting at their spring asking price into October have historically missed that window. Almost a third (30%) of homes currently for sale were listed back in Q2 and remain unsold with no price cut, and sellers keen to move should speak to their agent about what this means for their marketing strategy in the second half of the year.
The expected pick-up depends on mortgage rates holding steady rather than rising further; a further rise would likely delay any recovery in buyer confidence rather than support it.
“This summer has seen a sharper slowdown than usual, with higher mortgage rates and political uncertainty both weighing on buyer confidence,” said Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla.
“But it’s not all one-way traffic, sales are still getting done, house prices are still rising in most of the country, and buyers have more room to negotiate than they’ve had in some time.
“Conditions can vary sharply from place to place with almost three-quarters of local markets have seen sales fall over the past three months, but a quarter are bucking that trend entirely. Sellers should speak to a local agent who knows what’s actually happening on their own patch, rather than relying on the national picture.
“For anyone who doesn’t need to move, it’s entirely reasonable to wait and see how things settle. But for those with a genuine need to sell, our data shows September is when the market typically turns, and pricing to meet buyers now is what tends to get deals done, rather than waiting to see what autumn brings.”
