The UK housing market is holding up better than you might expect. Nationwide’s latest figures show annual house price growth accelerating to 3% in April, up from 2.2% in March, with the average home now changing hands for £278,880.
That’s a decent pickup, especially given the backdrop. Consumer confidence has slipped, buyer enquiries have softened, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed energy prices higher. Yet the market keeps ticking along.
Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, says the resilience comes down to household finances being in better shape than the headlines might suggest. Debt levels relative to income remain low, many households have built up savings in recent years, and affordability has improved as wages have grown and mortgage rates have come down, though rates have crept back up more recently.
Gardner struck a cautiously optimistic tone, noting that the market “has continued to regain momentum following the slowdown recorded around the turn of the year,” despite the uncertainty swirling around.
Not everyone is convinced, though. Chris Hodgkinson, MD of House Buyer Bureau, says the headline number flatters what’s actually happening on the ground. “While house prices have edged up, the reality is that the market continues to stagnate. Buyer demand has cooled, sellers are sitting on the market for longer, and we’re seeing more transactions fall through as uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment.”
Hodgkinson points to a disconnect between rising prices and sluggish activity, warning that “without a meaningful improvement in affordability, it’s likely that this subdued level of performance will persist in the near term.”
Looking ahead, Nationwide is equally cautious. The outlook depends heavily on how geopolitical tensions and energy prices develop, with the possibility that growth slows and inflation ticks higher.
