Latest reinsurance renewal commentary from Guy Carpenter
Post-mid-year 2026 renewals update:
After including market data from the mid-year June / July 2026 reinsurance renewals, the Guy Carpenter U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index is now down 16% for 2026 to-date, the same rate of decline as the broker’s Global Index of property cat rates.
Guy Carpenter said that a combination of benign losses, coupled with abundant reinsurer capacity and growing risk appetite, has continued to drive a competitive pricing environment.
At the mid-year 2026 reinsurance renewals Guy Carpenter reported that, “in North America, expansion of reinsurer appetites has led to greater interest in frequency protection coverages and broader products to enhance client risk
transfer programs.”
After the mid-year 2026 reinsurance renewals the cumulative increase of this US property cat rate Index since the soft market low in 2027 is around 62%, even after consecutive softening renewals.
Since the hard market peak of 2024 though, this U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index is now down by 22% after the June and July 2026 renewal rounds.
The 16% decline seen over the course of 2026 reinsurance renewals is now the biggest annual decline for this US property cat rate index since 2014.
January 1 2026 renewals update:
The Guy Carpenter U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index fell by 12% at the January 1 2026 reinsurance renewals, as broad market softening resulted in lower priced protection for ceding companies.
Guy Carpenter said that the renewals at January 1 2026 saw a continued increase in reinsurance capacity levels resulting in more pressure on rates, which resulted in a decline for Global property catastrophe rates, and for regions such as the United States.
There remained differentiation at the January 1st 2026 renewals, with some loss-impacted property catastrophe programs seeing price increases, which included for loss-affected regions of the US.
A year ago, the Guy Carpenter U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index fell by 6.2% at January 1st 2025 and the Index decline rose to 6.7% after the mid-year renewals, which took it back from an all-time-high, although it was still sitting above any level achieved prior to 2023.
A further 12% decline in US property catastrophe reinsurance rates at the 1/1 2026 renewals eroded some more of the hard market gains that reinsurers had made.
The Index fell further at April 1st 2026, with US property catastrophe reinsurance rates down by 14% after that renewal.
However, since 2017, the cumulative increase of this US property cat rate Index remains at around 66%, even after over two consecutive years of renewal softening.
Historically, the US property catastrophe rate on line Index remains at a high level. But it will be interesting to see how the mid-year 2026 reinsurance renewals affect the Index value.
The most recent low for this U.S. Property Catastrophe Rate on Line Index was in 2017, at the end of the soft market, since when rates had risen consistently each year up to January 2025.
* Numbers based on latest renewal data.
The Guy Carpenter ROL index is a measure of the change in dollars paid for coverage year on year on a consistent program base. The index reflects the pricing impact of a growing (or shrinking) exposure base, evolving methods of measuring risk and changes in buying habits, as well as changes in market conditions. Unlike risk-adjusted measurements, the index is not dependent on the model or method used to measure the amount of perceived risk in a program, which can vary widely.
Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product.
