How Business Uncertainty Drives CFO Investment Plans
At a glance, it could look like middle-market firms’ investment priorities haven’t changed much in the last year. This September, 35% of CFOs said their strategy is growth-oriented, and 38% said it is cautious. Those figures aren’t much different from one year ago, at 38% and 34%, respectively.
But a vast gap emerges when you dig into those figures. Among CFOs facing high uncertainty, 75% say they’ve been playing it safer over the past year, more than twice the 35% that said the same last year. By contrast, none of those facing low uncertainty became more cautious.
Overall uncertainty has held roughly steady. In September 2026, 27% of CFOs said their firms operate under high uncertainty. That’s close to where it was one year ago, and inside the 18% to 33% range it’s been in since early 2024.
However, the breakdown of who’s facing that uncertainty has shifted. The share of goods firms reporting high uncertainty has been rising, from 23% on average in 2024 to 47% in the latest survey (far higher than the 31% average throughout this year). Among services firms, meanwhile, it fell from 34% to 14%.
These are just some of the findings explored in the latest installment of The Certainty Project, a PYMNTS Intelligence exclusive series. This edition is based on a survey of 60 CFOs at middle market firms conducted in September 2026. Uncertainty, the study finds, has become the factor that separates CFOs who are ready to grow from those focused on protecting what they have.
Caution Takes Hold
CFOs facing high uncertainty are becoming far more cautious.
Firms are generally playing it safer. Overall, only 29% of firms became more growth-oriented in the last year, while 35% became more cautious. By contrast, in 2025, more firms (40%) said they’d become more growth-oriented in the last year, and fewer (32%) had become more cautious.
This turn toward caution is driven by firms that feel most unsure about the future. This year, three-quarters of high-uncertainty firms have become more cautious. In 2025, only 35% of high-uncertainty firms said the same. Meanwhile, this year, no low-uncertainty firms became more cautious, while last year, 33% did. Moreover, 87% of high-uncertainty firms now say they have a generally cautious investment strategy, while no low-uncertainty firms say the same.
Goods firms are hedging their bets.
Fifty-eight percent of goods firms now report having a cautious strategy, up from 41% last year. Tech firms also generally became more risk-averse, with 46% describing a cautious strategy versus 25% a year ago. Services firms, meanwhile, didn’t change much, and remain the most growth-oriented group at 43%.
What Drives Investment Decisions
CFOs are increasingly making plans based on customer demand and proven returns rather than internal priorities.
CFOs are looking outward when planning for the future. Among firms whose investment strategy changed in the last year, 61% cited customer demand as a contributing factor, up from 35% in 2025. Half pointed to the performance of past investments, more than double last year’s 23%. The share considering economic conditions rose from 40% to 53%, and technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), rose from 21% to 32%.
Meanwhile, fewer firms are looking inward to guide their course of action. The share reporting that they considered internal priorities fell from 42% to 18%. Competitive pressures dropped from 37% to 24%, access to capital or financing from 28% to 18%, and tariffs or trade policy from 21% to 11%.
Priorities vary depending on industry and uncertainty levels.
Nearly half (47%) of services firms and 43% of tech firms cited technology or AI as a contributing factor, compared with just 7% of goods firms. Goods firms cited customer demand and economic conditions equally (64% each).
The importance of giving the buyer what they want doesn’t change much, no matter how confident a business is about the future. Roughly six in 10 firms cited customer demand as a key consideration across all levels of uncertainty.
Beyond that, there’s more variance in what matters to firms depending on how sure a company is about its future. Among high-uncertainty firms, 77% cited economic conditions and 31% cited tariffs. No low- or medium-uncertainty firms mentioned tariffs. Among low-uncertainty firms, 60% pointed to past returns and 40% to technology or AI.
Overall, CFOs want proof of concept before making their next move. When asked what would likely lead them to reset strategy over the next year, two-thirds named clearer returns on past investments, and 47% cited a sustained recovery in customer demand. When asked to pick just one trigger, they split almost evenly between the two.
Each sector has its own key indicators. Tech firms most often want clearer returns (85%). Services firms stand out for wanting cheaper or easier financing (43%). Goods firms want greater policy or trade clarity (53%) and are watching for new tariff or trade disruptions (42%). Uncertainty factors in as well. Half of high-uncertainty firms say cheaper financing would reset their strategy, compared with 19% of low-uncertainty firms, and the gap is the same for policy or trade clarity.
Resilience Over Growth
Many CFOs are now focusing their investments on strengthening what they already have rather than expanding.
Over the past 12 months, growth remained the most common single focus at 35%, but more firms are prioritizing other factors. In total, 65% of firms focused most on efficiency, resilience or liquidity.
Uncertainty plays a major role. Most low-uncertainty firms prioritize growth (71%), while the remaining ones (29%) focus on efficiency. No low-uncertainty firms cited resilience or liquidity. For high-uncertainty firms, the opposite is true. None of these firms focused on growth, while 50% focused on liquidity and 38% on resilience.
By sector, 69% of goods firms focused on resilience or liquidity, while services and tech firms led on growth, at 43% and 46%, respectively.
Each investment focus comes with its own motivations. Among growth-focused firms, 71% said they prioritized this area because their prior investments were ready to scale, and 62% did so because they saw a bigger competitive opening. Efficiency-focused firms most often said AI or automation had changed the business case (79%) and that competitive pressure had intensified (71%). Firms focused on resilience or liquidity cited competitive pressure and rising input costs (56% each), more expensive or less accessible financing (52%) and tariffs (36%). Overall, when asked for the single biggest reason they focused their investment where they did, 20% of CFOs chose AI or automation, making this the top answer.
Technology holds steady while growth spending swings.
Priorities are shifting. The survey’s net change measure looks at the share of firms that raised investment in an area minus the share that cut it. Technology and automation is becoming a bigger factor, posting a net +53 across the sample and staying positive across every uncertainty level (+67 low, +65 medium, +19 high) and sector (+16 goods, +79 services, +54 tech). Thirty-five percent of CFOs called it their top investment priority, ahead of growth capital expenditures (20%) and liquidity buffers (18%).
Other areas vary more depending on how much uncertainty firms are experiencing. Growth capital expenditures ranged from +67 among low-uncertainty firms to -38 among high-uncertainty firms. AI or advanced analytics (-12) and hiring (-25) also fell among high-uncertainty firms. Working capital and liquidity rose modestly in every group, from +9 to +31.
Every sector has its own spending priorities. Services firms lead on technology (+79) and AI (+57). Goods firms cut AI (-21) and put operational resilience first (+58), while tech firms added the most to working capital and liquidity (+31).
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Methodology
The latest edition of The Certainty Project, a PYMNTS Intelligence exclusive series, is based on a survey of 60 CFOs of middle-market firms in September 2026. Middle market firms are defined here as companies with annual revenue between $100 million and $1 billion. This report examines how CFOs are resetting their investment strategies one year after the September 2025 edition. Questions on current strategy and how it changed over the past year repeat those in the 2025 edition, allowing a year-over-year comparison.
Services firms made up 47% of the sample, goods firms 32% and tech firms 22%. Firms with annual revenue between $100 million and $400 million accounted for 53% of respondents, and those with $400 million to $1 billion accounted for 47%. Thirty-five percent of CFOs reported low uncertainty, 38% reported medium uncertainty and 27% reported high uncertainty.
