e perceived risk of higher oil prices, which can quickly feed inflation in oil-importing economies and often boosts the US dollar. That’s why the coming earnings reports matter beyond the US: strong numbers could keep global optimism intact, but disappointment could trigger a sharper reset because a lot of good news is already baked into prices.
Why should I care?
For markets: Big tech results are the week’s main risk switch.
Markets across Asia looked choppy rather than uniformly weak. Taiwan, a major AI supply-chain hub, eased off after an all-time high, while South Korea’s KOSPI hit a record led by automakers and steelmakers. Indonesia’s main stock index slid to its lowest since early April, and Philippine shares extended their losing streak. If US mega-cap earnings impress, investors may stick with riskier assets; if they don’t, the priciest “AI-adjacent” trades are often the first to get hit.
The bigger picture: Currencies can flash inflation stress before stocks do.
The peso’s record low is a reminder that currency drops can make everyday imports – especially fuel – more expensive, forcing central banks to stay cautious. Thailand’s baht also weakened ahead of a Bank of Thailand decision where economists broadly expected no rate change, highlighting how sensitive policy can be when inflation risks are in play. Meanwhile, steadier moves in the Malaysian ringgit and Singapore dollar suggest investors are being selective – not writing off the whole region.
