The dollar index (DXY00) recovered from a 1-week low today and is up +0.03%. The fragile and uncertain situation in the Middle East is supporting safe-haven demand for the dollar today after Iran vowed to respond to the US attacks this week on Iran’s rail and maritime infrastructure.
The dollar initially moved lower today as easing geopolitical tensions undercut crude oil prices, after an American official said that talks between the US and Iran over a permanent peace deal are continuing, with the US still committed to finding a diplomatic solution with Iran. Also, Al Jazeera reported today that Qatar said it supports all efforts to defuse US-Iran tensions. Lower crude oil prices undercut inflation expectations and could prompt the Fed to loosen monetary policy, a negative factor for the dollar.
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The swaps markets are discounting the odds at 24% for a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.
EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down by -0.03% today. The euro is under pressure today from a stronger dollar. Also, today’s weaker-than-expected Italian May industrial production report is bearish for the euro. Limiting losses in the euro is today’s lower crude oil prices, which are positive for the Eurozone economy and the euro as Europe imports most of its energy.
Italy May industrial production fell -0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m and the biggest decline in 4 months.
The markets are discounting a +11% chance for a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on July 23.
USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down by -0.38% today. The yen is climbing against the dollar today after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government wants pension funds to increase investment in domestic assets. Also, today’s stronger-than-expected Japanese June produce price report is hawkish for BPJ policy and supportive for the yen. In addition, the yen rose after Reuters reported that the BOJ may raise its Japanese economic growth forecast for 2026 at its meeting later this month.
The risk of intervention in currency markets to support the yen is high, as the yen remains firmly above 160 per dollar at a 39-year low. Japanese authorities have intervened in the forex market several times in the past when the yen reached that level.
