The Indian rupee has fallen to a record low of ₹96.25 against the U.S. dollar, in early trade on Monday. This comes as elevated crude oil prices, global uncertainty, and a stronger dollar continue to remain key risks for the currency.
Forex traders said higher crude oil prices, a stronger U.S. dollar, and ongoing geopolitical tensions have together created a difficult environment for emerging market currencies, and the rupee is now clearly reflecting that stress.
The rupee opened at ₹96.19, then fell further to ₹96.25 against the U.S. dollar at the interbank foreign exchange market, registering a fall of 44 paisa from its previous close. It crashed below the ₹96 per dollar mark on May 15 before closing at an all-time low of ₹95.81 against the U.S. dollar.
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For now, elevated crude oil prices, global uncertainty, and a stronger dollar continue to remain key risks for the rupee. However, the encouraging sign for markets is that both the government and the RBI have already started taking proactive measures to manage the situation before it becomes more uncomfortable,” CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said.
“Technically, 94.80–95.10 is expected to act as an important support zone for USD-INR, while 96.00–96.50 remains a strong resistance area in the near term,” he added.
Families receiving remittances from the U.S. gain stronger purchasing power in the short term. Indian Americans investing in Indian real estate, stocks, or fixed deposits may find assets relatively cheaper in dollar terms. But a falling rupee can also signal economic stress, rising oil prices, inflation, and market volatility in India.
Traders said the losses would have been steeper if not for likely dollar-selling intervention by the Reserve Bank of India. Aside from market interventions, Indian policymakers have deployed rare regulatory curbs to support the rupee including, most recently, restrictions on most silver imports.
READ: Rupee slides past 90 Per dollar as exporters hold back (December 3, 2025)
There has been an overall 5.5% decline in the currency since the beginning of the war in Iran.
“With chances of oil staying higher for longer, we revise our forecast for further INR weakness to 96/USD by mid‑2026 and 98/USD by end-2026,” analysts at BofA Global Research said in a note.
“Growth risks dampen prospects for any reversal in equity inflows while low carry, high hedging costs, concerns around wider fiscal deficit and rate-hikes would reduce scope for debt flows.”
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank said on Friday that India’s forex reserves jumped by $6.295 billion to $696.988 billion during the week ended on May 8. The overall reserves had dropped by $7.794 billion to $690.693 billion in the previous reporting week.
