“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset’s value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ
Rightmove
Macro Relevance: 69%
Model Value: 462.86p
Fair Value Gap:-3.55% discount to model value
Data correct as at 30 September 2026. Please click glossary for explanation of terms. Long-term strategic model.
In the last few days, the eyeQ smart machine has turned cautious on the UK property sector. Homebuilders Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW.), Persimmon (LSE:PSN) and Bellway (LSE:BWY) all screen as rich – macro model value has rolled over and doesn’t support the recent “Your First Home” rally.
That makes our Rightmove (LSE:RMV) model especially interesting.
RMV screens as 3.6% cheap to overall macro conditions. That’s not enough to trigger an official bullish signal but the very fact that it’s cheap to macro – in sharp contrast with the homebuilders – is arguably a signal in itself. If the latest government policy action is going to stimulate home building, that should surely translate into broader buying/selling activity in the housing market? That should be positive for Rightmove.
Moreover, RMV is back in a macro regime (69% macro relevance score) and the eyeQ model shows that, unlike the builders, the stock is comfortable with rising real yields. In other words, it has a degree of protection from the current turmoil in global bond markets.
The chart below shows our usual fair value gap. Zero is macro fair value, so above the line the stock is rich, below the line signifies that it’s cheap. Normally we show the fair value gap in “real terms”. If a stock’s fair value on eyeQ is £10, and the actual share price is trading at £9, it’s £1 (or 10%) cheap to macro conditions.
The algorithm firing the eyeQ smart machine actually works in Z-scores – a fancy way of adjusting each stock for its own volatility. A 10% fair value gap on a stock that regularly moves 10%+ a day isn’t big news. A 10% fair value gap on a stock that typically only moves 2-3% is, however, a big deal. This enables you to look across high volatility and low-volatility stocks, and Z-scores mean you can make an apples-to-apples comparison.
Today’s chart shows RMV’s fair value gap in those Z-score terms. This highlights that while today’s FVG isn’t yet extreme, it is a fairly rare occurrence.
Enough of the maths. The bottom line is that if you believe a new help-to-buy scheme will kick-start the UK property market, eyeQ’s models suggest Rightmove looks a significantly more efficient way to express that bet.
Source: eyeQ. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Useful terminology:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model (macro) relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it’s cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results – model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
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Disclosure
We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found here.
Please note that our article on this investment should not be considered to be a regular publication.
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