Zillow issues reality check to Americans wanting to buy a home: Most severe figure in 19 years now a serious threat
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Waiting for mortgage rates to fall before buying a home? A warning from Zillow suggests that relief may be harder to come by than many shoppers hope.
In August, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond briefly hit its highest level (1) in 19 years. That figure wasn’t a mortgage rate. But rising Treasury yields can put upward pressure on borrowing costs, making an already difficult housing market even tougher for buyers.
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The Treasury Department responded by announcing (2) larger buybacks of long-term government bonds. Buying bonds can lift their prices and push yields lower.
However, Zillow senior economist Kara Ng cautioned that the move had not resolved what was driving yields higher.
“Mortgage borrowers should remember that while Treasury yields were mechanically pushed down, the underlying forces behind their rise – the government deficit, oil shock, and AI debt – haven’t faded and will likely put a floor under how far mortgage rates can fall,” Ng said (3).
Now, the bond market is flashing another warning. In a Sept. 23 Zillow report (4), Ng said another jump in Treasury yields could push mortgage rates higher just as fall shoppers look for deals.
“On September 23, the 10-year Treasury yield logged the highest daily spike since April 2025, landing at 5.1%, its highest level in about two decades,” Ng wrote, adding, “Rising bond yields will likely put upward pressure on already-elevated mortgage rates.”
Zillow now expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to ease only slightly to 6.7% by the end of 2026.
For homebuyers, that creates a frustrating trade-off: A fall price cut could make a home cheaper, only for higher borrowing costs to eat into the savings. Zillow says the mortgage payment on a typical home was already 2% higher in August than a year earlier.
None of this means Americans must give up on homeownership or real estate altogether. But it does make the financing decision more consequential — whether you’re trying to buy a home, invest in property or make use of the equity you’ve already built.