The study, dubbed The GAIL’s Effect, examined property sales around all 205 GAIL’s locations across the UK, comparing median house sale prices before and after the bakeries opened.
For Prestwich, the analysis found the median sold house price in postcode sector M25 3 increased from £297,000 in the two years before GAIL’s arrived to £324,000 afterwards, a rise of nine per cent.
The branch at 463 Bury New Road appeared on the bakery chain’s store finder between November and December 2024.
Researchers behind the project said Prestwich was one of the strongest performing locations in the North of England, with nearby Sale reportedly seeing a much smaller increase after receiving its own GAIL’s branch during the same period.
The data was compiled by James Brooks, creator of The GAIL’s Effect website, which was inspired by a viral social media post from property investor Samuel Leeds encouraging buyers to “follow GAIL’s” when searching for areas with growth potential.
Mr Brooks analysed 10,531 property sales using HM Land Registry Price Paid Data covering the period from 2021 to 2026.
He said: “Samuel Leeds told people to ‘follow Gail’s’, so I followed all 205 of them. In Buxton, sold prices are up 17 per cent since the bakery opened. Turns out the sourdough smell is worth more than the sourdough.”
Prestwich’s nine per cent increase places it among a group of locations where prices have risen since the arrival of the bakery chain.
Across the country, the project found house prices increased in 19 of the 32 areas where enough data was available for comparison.
Eight locations recorded rises of 10 per cent or more.
The strongest growth was recorded in Buxton, where median sold prices increased by 17 per cent, while St Margaret’s and Hitchin also saw double-digit rises.
However, the study’s creator stressed that the figures should not be treated as proof that GAIL’s itself causes property values to increase.
Mr Brooks said: “The GAIL’s effect is real, it’s just picky. Buxton, St Margaret’s and Hitchin all saw double-digit rises. Other places went the other way. If you’re investing by pastry, take a calculator as well as a tote bag.”
The project’s methodology notes state that the figures represent a “raw before and after” comparison and are not adjusted for wider movements in the housing market.
It also warns that changes in the types of homes sold can affect median prices and that “correlation is not causation”.
Current listings within half a mile of the Prestwich bakery show a median asking price of £325,000, with 44 homes on the market, including 34 for sale and 10 available to rent.
The GAIL’s Effect project describes itself as an unofficial analysis and says its findings should not be regarded as financial advice.
