MINOT — Recently, I wrote about an odd reality in North Dakota politics: we have, at least for this election, effectively three political parties.
There are the Democrats, who are
though still facing stiff headwinds. There are the traditionally conservative Republicans, who, for the most part, are the incumbents on the ballot and are led by Gov. Kelly Armstrong. And then there are the populist Republicans, who have won leadership positions in the North Dakota Republican Party and a smattering of legislative seats.
That divide among our state’s Republicans seems like something Democrats could exploit and, indeed, it seems like maybe Democratic U.S. House candidate Trygve Hammer is attempting to do just that.
Why do I believe that? Allow me to show my work.
First there was the cameo Hammer made at the NDGOP’s state convention in Minot, where Hammer lives. That event was held in the same facility as a flea market and a gun show.
he was attending the latter event, but happened to see one of the convention attendees struggling to carry in signs from the parking lot. He helped out and then spent some time inside the hall shaking hands.
Second was
a comment from Hammer on my Facebook page
in which the candidate defended the populist faction that was also in charge of that aforementioned convention.
“Let me dispel some mischaracterizations about the ‘populist’ Republicans,” Hammer wrote. “1.) Not all of them like (some strongly dislike) Donald Trump. 2.) Many I have talked to would prefer to keep religion out of politics. 3.) A good number of them are unhappy that the State Senate shot down the school lunch bill. 4.) More than anything, they feel like ‘open for business’ means that any entity with big money can come into ND and roll over citizens, towns, townships and counties and that neither those monied special interests nor their elected officeholders in Washington, D.C. or Bismarck care to hear their concerns.”
This analysis is not factually correct — one need look no further than that NDGOP state convention to see it — but I don’t think Hammer intended to offer a factual analysis.
This is positioning. This is tactics.
Republicans are divided. U.S. Rep. Julie Fedorchak was one of the statewide incumbents who boycotted the populist-run NDGOP convention. The populists are mad at Fedorchak. Maybe so much so they might be enticed into voting for a Democrat?
We’ve seen the political horseshoe — the convergence of the far-left and far-right — at work in our state on issues like carbon capture and data centers. Hammer perhaps thinks he can make some inroads.
What could that mean at the ballot box? Maybe not much. In the 2024 Republican House primary, Alex Balazs and former lawmaker Rick Becker combined to earn just a bit more than 30,000 votes against Fedorchak. That same year, in the general election, Hammer lost to Fedorchak by a margin of about 140,000 votes. Even if Hammer pulled over every single Balazs/Becker voter, he’d still lose in a landslide.
Still, political movements win through addition, not subtraction. Hammer clearly sees in the NDGOP’s divisions a chance to add to his movement.
